Steel prices had a mixed month in July, rising in China and, for the most part, declining in Europe and the USA. In China, stock levels have stayed at historical lows, fostering a perception of a tight market that has had a supportive effect on prices. Although late in the month prices eased slightly, we maintain that they will keep rising in H2, supported by low stocks and better utilisation rates, triggered by accelerating capacity cuts in the second half. In Europe and the USA steel prices remained overall stable or fell less than we expected. Although good underlying demand from the automotive sector is lending some support to prices, most of the support is coming from anti-dumping duties, which are sheltering the EU and the USA from competitively priced imports. Regional premia remain too high in both regions, leaving open arbitrage opportunities that sooner or later will force a realignment to lower global prices.