Commodity market report

40890333

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03 October 2017

40890333

Report summary

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • China: low steel inventories support prices
      • Capacity cuts have gathered pace since June
    • EU: steelmakers face weakening demand
      • EU steelmakers make investments downstream
      • Anti-dumping measures are keeping EU steel prices higher for longer
    • US steel prices have eased marginally
      • Three factors supported steel prices in July
      • Good times cannot last forever
        • Steel and scrap prices (tables and charts)
    • More volatility in July iron ore markets
    • Spot coking coal price holds at $100/tonne CFR China
    • Scrap prices
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • Brazil

Tables and charts

This report includes 38 images and tables including:

  • Prices and other key data
  • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
  • Key companies: Image 1
  • Korea generates enough scrap to withstand fluctuations in scrap import prices...
  • ...while Turkey domestic availability of scrap is lower and purchases are more volatile
  • Costs: Table 1
  • Operating results
  • Global crude steel production stagnates
  • Diverging PMI indices
  • Demand is improving in emerging markets…
  • Demand is diverging in the mature economies
  • Crude steel production will continue to rise in Q3
  • Another round of re-stocking will start in Q3
  • EU steel imports have not decreased...
  • The EU has become a net importer of steel
  • Underlying steel demand growth remains slow
  • Steel service centre stocks have fallen…
  • Indian steel demand continues to grow…
  • Trade wars continue
  • The construction sector will continue to be weak until August
  • Production recovered in Q2, and will continue to increase in Q3
  • Demand outlook remains weak…
  • Finding a destination for exports is difficult…
  • 2016 marks a low point for Brazilian steel demand
  • 3Mtpa of crude steel capacity comes on line
  • Key quarterly data
  • Price recovered from early June to mid-July
  • Chinese crude steel production revised up
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • …whereas UK CPI growth was negative in May with a continued decline in steel demand likely.
  • Total EU CPI is negative, however the region continues to have positive steel demand growth, albeit subdued.
  • UK new passenger vehicle registrations decreased year-on-year in May although total EU registrations grew.
  • In the US, HR coil prices have followed a normal pattern and have increased when the market is tight and stocks are low
  • Despite the trade cases attracted by high US domestic prices, imports have actually started to rise
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Robust demand from automotive supported steel prices in the EU and the USA in July, but regional premia remain high.
  • Steel inventories at their lowest since 2010 have lifted steel prices in China. We expect more of the same in H2.
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2

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