Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook July 2019

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30 July 2019

Global steel short-term outlook July 2019

Report summary

The outlook for the steel industry remained tough in July and we have maintained our steel price forecasts the same as in June. But there are some glimmers of hope – raw materials prices look to be approaching their peak, China has loosened the reins on infrastructure investment and imposed production restrictions in Tangshan, and US steel prices stabilised after three months of decline. Read our short term outlook for more.

Table of contents

    • Demand
    • Housing policy turns cautious
    • Curbing rising property prices
    • Tightening developers’ financing
    • Restricting foreign bond issuance
    • Expected tightening of mortgage lending in H2
    • Old home upgrades offer upside risk – albeit limited
    • Infrastructure investment will pick up speed, but when?
    • Auto retail sales improved – yet not a sustainable story
    • Crude steel production to ease in H2
    • The woes of EU28 flat-steel producers have continued as demand from the automotive sector falls and imports rise
    • The flat-steel export market has provided some relief
    • Long product producers face fewer headwinds
    • No change to our total production forecast, although expect tweaks on a national level
    • Potential increases to production offset by downside risk elsewhere
    • Price relationship between flats and longs to remain inverted
    • US steel prices: is the worst over?
    • Imports: low premia to curb import penetration
    • Iron ore
    • Metallurgical coal
    • Scrap
    • Margins

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • Chinese property indicators
  • Chinese auto sales and production
  • Growth in EU28 vehicle production monthly year-on-year
  • EU28 year-on-year growth in cement production
  • Existing and planned US steel capacity
  • US-China HRC price premia
  • Quarterly steel prices, table and charts
  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • China real steel demand indicators
  • China steel trade
  • EU28 crude-steel production
  • EU28 imports by source
  • US crude steel production and operations
  • US steel imports
  • India crude steel production
  • India automotive and construction
  • Brazilian HR coil prices
  • Brazilian crude steel production
  • Summary table

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data July 2019.xls

    XLS 302.50 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook July 2019

    PDF 1.14 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook July 2019

    ZIP 1.34 MB

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