Commodity market report

Global steel short-term outlook June 2017

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Report summary

Signs of an imminent price readjustment strengthened in June. Prices continued to slip in the US and Europe and for most of the month also declined in China. Here tighter credit supply and tighter controls on regional governments' expenditure have started to hamper investment growth. This means that demand for construction steel has peaked for the year and will start to ease from now on. Support to prices will fade also on the capacity front. As most closures of induction furnaces are completed the pace at which production increases at legitimate operations is set to decline. With it the feeling of tightness that has supported sky high rebar margins will also wane. To this mix of weakening demand and stabilising supply add the negative price outlook for steelmaking raw materials and the potential for price falls in China is vast.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data Jun 2017.xls

    XLS 826.00 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook June 2017

    PDF 525.84 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook June 2017

    ZIP 809.34 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
  • Key companies
  • Market structure

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

Images

  • Costs: Image 1
  • Costs: Image 2
  • Key companies: Image 1
  • Global crude steel production
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Steel apparent demand: emerging economies
  • Steel apparent demand: mature economies
  • Demand from construction expands
  • Production in line with five-year average
  • Market structure: Image 7
  • Stocks remain below long-term average
  • India real steel demand indicators
  • India market structure
  • EAF surge support production growth
  • Market structure: Image 12
  • Brazil automotive production
  • Brazil market structure
  • Production has declined in May
  • Demand remains sluggish
  • FAI growth decelerated in May
  • BOF-to-EAF cost differencenarrowed in Q2
  • Import penetration has been on the rise, driven by inflows from India, but also a rise in Chinese coated steel, reducing local supplier market share.
  • All major steel-consuming sectors have illustrated growth, with construction outpacing expectations.
  • Steel demand trends in construction and automotive diverge, as expected.
  • Rebar and hot-rolled coil price spreads over scrap continued to narrow.
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 7
  • Rebar prices continued to rise in China. Fundamental support will dissipate in H2.

Tables

  • Prices and other key data
  • Costs: Table 1
  • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
  • Operating results
  • Key quarterly data
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2

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