Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook June 2018

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29 June 2018

Global steel short-term outlook June 2018

Report summary

Looking at real demand and leading indicators, June was a very hopeful month for the steel industry. In China, data releases show that construction starts and land sales have picked up, suggesting that our 2% forecast for annual growth in the sector may be conservative. In the US shipment data suggest strong demand. Even in the EU, were the strength of demand had faltered at the end of Q1, April indicators and confidence survey into June point to an optimistic view of steel demand for the rest of the year. But headwinds are gathering...

Table of contents

    • Key annual data
    • China
      • Demand
        • Property construction strengthened despite restrictive policy
        • Upside risks to our property steel demand forecast
      • Supply
        • China's steel production reached a record high in May
        • but the growth may slow on China's ‘blue sky’ action plan
        • Potential upside of our supply forecast
        • EU
          • Underlying sector growth remains strong
          • Consolidation moves slowly ahead
      • as steel users finally go on an offensive
      • Steelmakers risk becoming victims of their own success
    • No change in iron ore prices, but quality spreads widen
    • Coking coal prices up on supply concerns - but a drop is forecast
    • Scrap price flat-line - but the fundamentals suggest a decline is coming
    • Changes of ownership could well define the future direction of Indian steelmaking and there has recently been a flurry of activity:
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • Japan
    • Brazil
    • Russia

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Key prices
  • High US Steel prices are supportive of margins.
  • Margins for rebar producers in China have strengthened ahead of expectations.
  • Scrap quarterly and annual prices
  • Costs: Table 2
  • Global crude steel production...
  • Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index...
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • Steel production accelerates
  • Steel stocks continues falling
  • Eurozone construction PMI
  • EU car registration
  • Domestic steelmakers have continued to benefit...
  • Underlying steel demand has continued to grow...
  • Indian steel demand is improving...
  • Insolvency proceeding dominate Indian capacity story
  • Real steel demand indicators
  • Steel demand and production
  • Crude steel production down 8.6% in May...
  • No near-term price rises are expected...
  • Steel demand holds up
  • Steel production grows faster
  • Summary table
  • High regional spreads have continued to attract imports
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Risks start to diverge regionally: strong construction demand poses upside risks to rebar in China...
  • ... while lack of supply discipline may drag down European hot-rolled coil.
  • The proposed mergers will trigger some consolidation
  • Automotive demand shows resilience

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data June 2018.xls

    XLS 269.00 KB

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    Global steel short-term outlook June 2018

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