Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook June 2019

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28 June 2019

Global steel short-term outlook June 2019

Report summary

Headwinds for the global steel industry intensified in June. Iron ore prices continued to soar putting pressure on steelmaking costs and margins, while demand and production growth slowed. The result is a downward price revision in all regions for 2019. In China, the government continues to stimulate infrastructure and so despite rising raw materials costs production keeps rising strongly. But with margins being squeezed utilisation rates are expected to drop in H2. US steel prices have been in free fall, but supply curtailments should see to stabilisation in H2. Declining demand from both the automotive and construction sectors and rising costs will see EU28 crude steel production fall by 5Mt this year.

Table of contents

    • Demand
    • Property: new starts slow on weak property sales
    • Government aims to stabilise property market
    • Infrastructure: more support on the policy side
    • Manufacturing decelerates further
    • Excavator growth turns negative
    • Supply
    • Crude steel expands at a strong pace
    • Steel restocking on weaker demand
    • EAF output slows on margin losses
    • Steel exports will bounce back
    • Demand – particularly for flat steels – is falling
    • The automotive sector is already contracting...
    • and we expect the construction sector will decline in H2
    • Flat steel producers are facing raw material and carbon cost pressures
    • Crude steel production will decline this year
    • Hot metal production will never recover
    • Closures will mitigate against further price falls, but imports provide downside risk
    • Iron ore
    • Metallurgical coal
    • Scrap
    • Margins

Tables and charts

This report includes 22 images and tables including:

  • US crude steel production
  • US steel imports
  • Quarterly steel prices, table and charts
  • Chinese manufacturing production growth
  • Year-to-date infrastructure investment growth, and estimates throughout the year
  • Rebar margins for BOF and EAF
  • Steel inventory with traders
  • EU 28 vehicle sales by type
  • Passenger vehicle production growth
  • Iron ore and EU hot rolled coil prices
  • EU carbon cost
  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • China real steel demand indicators
  • China steel trade
  • EU28 crude-steel production
  • EU28 automotive sales
  • US trade, shipments and production
  • US sectoral growth
  • Summary table

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data June 2019.xls

    XLS 298.50 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook June 2019

    ZIP 1.11 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook June 2019

    ZIP 1.14 MB

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