Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook May 2021

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01 June 2021

Global steel short-term outlook May 2021

Report summary

Chinese government enforced production cuts have yet to impact the market, so we think more will be done – likely attempts to curb underlying steel demand which will then see output ease. Chinese prices showed signs of peaking in mid-May. But US and EU prices appear non-stoppable as sentiment takes over. Also in this month’s short-term outlook: • Can US steel demand get any stronger? • EU supply has all-but recovered post-pandemic with demand showing signs of weakness – when will the price plummet come? • India steel stalls as the pandemic rages – can it bounce back?

Table of contents

  • Prices and cost
    • Chinese steel prices start to cool
    • What has happened to prices in the past few weeks?
    • Prices surged uncontrollably at the start of May
    • Steel prices started to tumble by mid-May
    • Despite all government efforts, production keeps marching ahead
    • What does this mean for prices?
    • Demand is at full steam , but growth in residential is just unparalleled!
    • Supply: pre-COVID-19 recovery is proving to be a drawn-out affair
    • The outcome: prices up imports up!
    • Supply
    • Trade
    • Demand
    • Prices
    • Indian steel production loses momentum due to severe second pandemic wave
    • Steel exports to provide lifeline and domestic prices expected to soften in the near term
    • Mixed signals from end-use sectors
    • 2. Neutrals
    • 3. Inhibitors
    • Green shoots confirm demand recovery
    • Iron ore
    • Coal
    • Scrap
    • Green steel initiatives and other industry developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 30 images and tables including:

  • China
  • India
  • EU
  • US
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Steel order book improving and inventory falling
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Key consumption indicators seen improving
  • HRC prices and margins
  • Rebar prices and margins
  • Blast Furnace utilisation rates (%)
  • Daily HM production (MT)
  • Key leading indicators
  • Housing market indicators
  • Growing prices, growing imports!
  • EU + UK crude steel output
  • EU + UK hot metal production
  • EAF production in EU + UK
  • EAF share of total production
  • EU crude steel production growth
  • EU crude steel production year-to-April
  • Net imports of steel into the EU and UK
  • Imports of steel by source
  • EU industry ex-construction versus BOF production
  • EU construction versus EAF production
  • Indian crude steel production and growth
  • Indian trade

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook May 2021

    PDF 1.64 MB