Commodity market report
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19 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook November 2015

Global steel short-term outlook November 2015

Report summary

Nothing seems able to stem the descent of global steel prices. While good news in the steel industry continues to be few and far between, the little there is remains ineffectual. In China growing investment in infrastructure and the reduction of the vehicle purchase tax will prove insufficient to counter the slide in steel demand caused by property painfully working its way through oversupply. In the USA and Europe a stock overhang from last year and staggeringly low prices mean that the effect of good underlying demand are not being felt by local producers who have started to announce capacity closures.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook November 2015 PDF - 547.89 KB 19 Pages, 8 Tables, 27 Figures
  • SMS 2015 11 DataFile(V1.2).xls XLS - 244.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China – no lifeline from the government to the steel sector
      • More mills prepare for stoppages
      • Weak demand outside China makes exports increasingly challenging
    • In the US apparent demand is weak despite growth across end-use sectors
      • Destocking at the heart of market weakness
      • Continued price falls precipitate capacity closures
      • Steel and scrap prices (tables and charts)
  • Costs
    • The iron ore market unfazed by Samarco's accident
    • Coking coal prices continue to weaken
    • Scrap prices continue to follow iron ore lead
  • Key companies
    • Industry developments
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia

In this report there are 35 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Price and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China exports growth slows in October
    • Chinese construction activity by region
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Monthly indicators suggest that underlying steel demand has continued to grow this year.
    • Ongoing destocking has been at the heart of the fall in apparent steel demand.
    • Announced and planned US steelmaking capacity closures in 2015
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • HR coil prices likely to continue their fall in December on the back of strong oversupply
    • Rebar prices have not found their floor in China, and remain stubbornly high in the USA
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Costs
    • Global iron making trend: selected regions
    • Currency devaluation in raw materials exporting regions
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Global crude steel production continues to contract...
    • Mature versus emerging markets split remains
    • Demand outlook in emerging markets remains weak
    • Apparent steel demand in mature economies…
    • Chinese steel production was flat in October
    • China steel exports start to decline in October
    • EU steel production declines on low prices
    • Market structure: Image 8
    • Apparent demand continues to fall
    • US steelmakers tighten discipline
    • Steel demand continues to improve
    • Steel production under pressure from imports
    • Japan steel production remains weak
    • Japan stocks remain high
    • Market structure: Image 15
    • Exports no longer sufficient to support steel production
    • Key quarterly data
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