Commodity market report

Global steel short-term outlook November 2016

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Report summary

November's soaring raw material prices are the main contributor to the rise in Chinese steel prices. EU steel producers have also justified further rises on the basis of raw material costs; rises which coincide with the imposition of anti dumping duties against Chinese HR coil. In the US steel imports have dropped and sentiment regarding President elect Trump's future policies have raised prices. In Q1 2017 we expect raw material prices to fall and consequently Chinese steel prices. The US has room for further rises the magnitude of which will become clearer with future policy announcements. HR coil in the EU has limited room for further growth but is likely to stay around $500/tonne in H1 2017 supported by automotive growth. EU rebar prices are likely to follow global prices higher.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data Nov 2016.xls

    XLS 289.00 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook November 2016

    PDF 512.23 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook November 2016

    ZIP 625.89 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
  • Key companies
  • Market structure

Tables and charts

This report includes 34 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key companies: Image 1
  • Margins at rebar Chinese mills are too low, suggesting an imminent turning point
  • Soaring hot-metal production costs priced billet out of the Turkish market, supporting scrap prices
  • Global steel production is flat year-to-date
  • Global PMI points to expansion
  • Emerging markets apparent steel consumption
  • Mature markets apparent steel consumption
  • Production will hardly decline before 2017…
  • ...but exports are struggling
  • Turkish steel imports gain market share
  • EU 2016 demand increases, production falls
  • Imports have continued to ease…
  • Steel stocks have continued to fall
  • Indian underlying demand continues to grow…
  • More support to Indian crude steel production…
  • Production declines, as profits worsen…
  • ...and demand weakens
  • Steel demand stabilisation is yet to be achieved
  • Russian steel exports remain high
  • Spot prices reached record highs for 2016 at the end of October
  • Manufacturing-related sectors have performed much better than the construction sector since Q2
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Total EU28 automotive steel demand growth is attributable to domestic demand
  • Rising costs and anti-dumping duties will support prices in H1 2017.
  • Falling or disappointing demand from construction has undermined rebar prices.

Tables

  • Prices and other key data
  • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
  • Costs: Table 1
  • Operating results
  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Targets and achievements during the past five years
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4

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