Commodity market report
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20 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook November 2016

Global steel short-term outlook November 2016

Report summary

November's soaring raw material prices are the main contributor to the rise in Chinese steel prices. EU steel producers have also justified further rises on the basis of raw material costs; rises which coincide with the imposition of anti-dumping duties against Chinese HR coil. In the US, steel imports have dropped and sentiment regarding President-elect Trump's future policies have raised prices. In Q1 2017 we expect raw material prices to fall, and consequently Chinese steel prices. The US has room for further rises, the magnitude of which will become clearer with future policy announcements. HR coil in the EU has limited room for further growth but is likely to stay around $500/tonne in H1 2017 supported by automotive growth. EU rebar prices are likely to follow global prices higher.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook November 2016 PDF - 512.23 KB 20 Pages, 9 Tables, 25 Figures
  • Global steel markets short-term outlook data Nov 2016.xls XLS - 289.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China: soaring costs create uncertainty around prices
      • Demand continues to increase in manufacturing-related sectors
      • Exports continue to decline in November
  • Costs
    • Coking coal prices breach US$300/tonne, but decline in sight
    • Iron ore prices continue to enjoy the coal ride
    • Margins have plummeted, but an adjustment is imminent
    • Scrap price boosted by Turkey and China
  • Key companies
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • Key quarterly data

In this report there are 34 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Prices and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Targets and achievements during the past five years
    • Spot prices reached record highs for 2016 at the end of October
    • Manufacturing-related sectors have performed much better than the construction sector since Q2
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Total EU28 automotive steel demand growth is attributable to domestic demand
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
    • Rising costs and anti-dumping duties will support prices in H1 2017.
    • Falling or disappointing demand from construction has undermined rebar prices.
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Costs
    • Margins at rebar Chinese mills are too low, suggesting an imminent turning point
    • Soaring hot-metal production costs priced billet out of the Turkish market, supporting scrap prices
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Global steel production is flat year-to-date
    • Global PMI points to expansion
    • Emerging markets apparent steel consumption
    • Mature markets apparent steel consumption
    • Production will hardly decline before 2017…
    • ...but exports are struggling
    • Turkish steel imports gain market share
    • EU 2016 demand increases, production falls
    • Imports have continued to ease…
    • Steel stocks have continued to fall
    • Indian underlying demand continues to grow…
    • More support to Indian crude steel production…
    • Production declines, as profits worsen…
    • ...and demand weakens
    • Steel demand stabilisation is yet to be achieved
    • Russian steel exports remain high
    • Market structure: Table 1
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