Commodity market report

Global steel short-term outlook October 2016

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Report summary

In China we expect that steel prices have reached their near term peak and the HR coil price will average US$435/tonne in Q4 up US$140/tonne on last year. In Europe prices are likely to increase on the back of stronger than expected demand in the automotive sector and recently imposed anti dumping duties on HR coil imports from China. In the US after four months of declines steel prices should have reached their bottom and we expect to see some improvement in the coming months.

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    Global steel markets short-term outlook Oct 2016.xls

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Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Costs
  • Key companies
  • Market structure

Tables and charts

This report includes 35 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key companies: Image 1
  • No change in iron ore stocks to suggest that Chinese steel production is about to decline.
  • Price recovery has supported margins, but cost inflation will eat into the gains.
  • Global steel production down 0.5% year-to-date
  • Manufacturing activity should improve…
  • Emerging markets apparent steel consumption
  • Mature markets apparent steel consumption
  • Crude steel production predicaments in Q4
  • Steel stocks at traders will increase in Q4
  • Import duties imposed on HR coil from China
  • Automotive continues to exceed expectations
  • Imports have started to withdraw…
  • Steel demand has disappointed
  • Indian steel demand continues to grow…
  • The Minimum Import Prices (MIP) extended…
  • Crude steel production increased in fiscal H1 2016
  • Upside risk to Japan's exports in fiscal H2 2016.
  • Automotive sector has turned a corner
  • Russian steel exports continue to rise…
  • Coking coal price rises will support steel prices in Q4.
  • Private and even more state-owned manufacturers are growing optimistic about the near term.
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • OCTG steel prices are highly dependant on the change in oil supply.
  • Completion of wells – both DUC and new – offers support to OCTG-steel consumption.
  • Rising costs and anti-dumping duties will support prices in H1 2017.
  • Falling or disappointing demand from construction has undermined rebar prices.

Tables

  • Prices and other key data
  • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
  • Costs: Table 1
  • Operating results
  • Market structure: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3

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