Commodity market report
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19 Pages

Global steel short-term outlook October 2016

Global steel short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

In China, we expect that steel prices have reached their near-term peak and the HR coil price will average US$435/tonne in Q4 – up US$140/tonne on last year. In Europe prices are likely to increase on the back of stronger-than-expected demand in the automotive sector and recently imposed anti-dumping duties on HR coil imports from China. In the US, after four months of declines steel prices should have reached their bottom and we expect to see some improvement in the coming months.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global steel short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 517.60 KB 19 Pages, 8 Tables, 27 Figures
  • Global steel markets short-term outlook Oct 2016.xls XLS - 287.50 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Steel Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China: demand is increasing but margins have faded
      • Increasing coal price pushes up steel costs and prices
      • Current stocks are insufficient for Q4
    • The EU introduces anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC
    • US steel prices should be near the bottom
      • Steel imports ease…
      • …while demand has continued to disappoint
      • Rising oil prices could offer an unexpected support to steel demand and prices
      • Steel producers have started to push for price increases
        • Steel and scrap prices (tables and charts)
  • Costs
    • Iron ore prices return above US$60/tonne
    • Coking coal prices have not budged from the top
    • Support to scrap prices will be short lived
  • Key companies
  • Market structure
    • Global
    • China
    • Europe
    • USA
    • India
    • Japan
    • Russia
    • Key quarterly data

In this report there are 35 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Prices and other key data
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Coking coal price rises will support steel prices in Q4.
    • Private and even more state-owned manufacturers are growing optimistic about the near term.
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
    • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
    • OCTG steel prices are highly dependant on the change in oil supply.
    • Completion of wells – both DUC and new – offers support to OCTG-steel consumption.
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
    • Rising costs and anti-dumping duties will support prices in H1 2017.
    • Falling or disappointing demand from construction has undermined rebar prices.
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Costs
    • No change in iron ore stocks to suggest that Chinese steel production is about to decline.
    • Price recovery has supported margins, but cost inflation will eat into the gains.
    • Costs: Table 1
  • Key companies
    • EBITDA margin for selected steel makers (table and chart)
    • Key companies: Image 1
    • Operating results
  • Market structure
    • Global steel production down 0.5% year-to-date
    • Manufacturing activity should improve…
    • Emerging markets apparent steel consumption
    • Mature markets apparent steel consumption
    • Crude steel production predicaments in Q4
    • Steel stocks at traders will increase in Q4
    • Import duties imposed on HR coil from China
    • Automotive continues to exceed expectations
    • Imports have started to withdraw…
    • Steel demand has disappointed
    • Indian steel demand continues to grow…
    • The Minimum Import Prices (MIP) extended…
    • Crude steel production increased in fiscal H1 2016
    • Upside risk to Japan's exports in fiscal H2 2016.
    • Automotive sector has turned a corner
    • Russian steel exports continue to rise…
    • Market structure: Table 1
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