Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQ's about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

31 October 2019

Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

Report summary

How will China’s latest “Blue Sky Defence” plan impact production? Why has China increased imports of semi-finished steels and will it continue? Can Indian crude steel production continue to grow given the weak demand outlook? Given high input costs and falling demand, does EU steelmaking have a future? Can EU steel prices sink further? How has US steel output responded to the deteriorating price environment? What impact has the General Motors strike had?

Table of contents

    • Property: good for another month but how long can it last?
    • Chinese infrastructure investment will continue to recover slowly
    • Manufacturing: improves at the end of Q3 but remains low
    • Steel supply: the reported annualised crude steel output approaches 1 billion tonnes
    • but we expect the momentum to ease in the fourth quarter as demand retreats
    • Production restrictions will not play a leading role this winter
    • Chinese steelmakers are importing semis products while steel exports are muted
    • The Indian demand outlook is weak
    • Indian steel stocks have limited scope to support further demand growth
    • Indian production will remain weak through the remainder of the year
    • EU28 steel demand down ~5%
    • EU28 crude steel production down 3% year-to-September
    • H1 finished steel export volumes from the EU are the highest in four years
    • High operating costs provide EU28 price support
    • US production seems to be (finally) trending down
    • but the appetite for new capacities has not lessened
    • GM strike: fear factor has pushed prices down
    • Low prices low spreads low(er) imports
  • Iron ore
  • Metallurgical coal
  • Scrap
  • Margins

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • China team recent trip summary
  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • China real steel demand indicators
  • China steel trade
  • EU28 crude-steel production
  • EU28 imports by source
  • US steel imports
  • US sectoral growth
  • India crude steel production
  • Indian housing indicators
  • Brazilian CSP, AFSU and net imports
  • Brazilian crude steel production
  • Summary table
  • Rebar inventory with traders, 2019 versus 2018
  • HRC inventory with traders, 2019 versus 2018
  • Shanghai steel prices for rebar, VAT excluded
  • Official daily crude steel production
  • Annualised crude steel production based on year-to-date official numbers
  • EU28 crude steel production with selected at-risk assets – see Key Companies section for details
  • Net imports of steel to the EU are falling...
  • ...and domestic production is declining
  • US HRC prices and US-China price spread
  • US weekly production and utilisation rate
  • Quarterly and annual steel prices
  • Quarterly and annual metallics prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data October 2019.xls

    XLS 292.00 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

    ZIP 1.12 MB

Trusted by leading organisations