Commodity Market Report

Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

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31 October 2019

Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

Report summary

How will China’s latest “Blue Sky Defence” plan impact production? Why has China increased imports of semi-finished steels and will it continue? Can Indian crude steel production continue to grow given the weak demand outlook? Given high input costs and falling demand, does EU steelmaking have a future? Can EU steel prices sink further? How has US steel output responded to the deteriorating price environment? What impact has the General Motors strike had?

Table of contents

    • Property: good for another month but how long can it last?
    • Chinese infrastructure investment will continue to recover slowly
    • Manufacturing: improves at the end of Q3 but remains low
    • Steel supply: the reported annualised crude steel output approaches 1 billion tonnes
    • but we expect the momentum to ease in the fourth quarter as demand retreats
    • Production restrictions will not play a leading role this winter
    • Chinese steelmakers are importing semis products while steel exports are muted
    • The Indian demand outlook is weak
    • Indian steel stocks have limited scope to support further demand growth
    • Indian production will remain weak through the remainder of the year
    • EU28 steel demand down ~5%
    • EU28 crude steel production down 3% year-to-September
    • H1 finished steel export volumes from the EU are the highest in four years
    • High operating costs provide EU28 price support
    • US production seems to be (finally) trending down
    • but the appetite for new capacities has not lessened
    • GM strike: fear factor has pushed prices down
    • Low prices low spreads low(er) imports
  • Iron ore
  • Metallurgical coal
  • Scrap
  • Margins

Tables and charts

This report includes 28 images and tables including:

  • China team recent trip summary
  • Global crude-steel production
  • Manufacturing purchasing managers index in key regions
  • Emerging economies steel consumption
  • Mature economies steel consumption
  • China real steel demand indicators
  • China steel trade
  • EU28 crude-steel production
  • EU28 imports by source
  • US steel imports
  • US sectoral growth
  • India crude steel production
  • Indian housing indicators
  • Brazilian CSP, AFSU and net imports
  • Brazilian crude steel production
  • Summary table
  • Rebar inventory with traders, 2019 versus 2018
  • HRC inventory with traders, 2019 versus 2018
  • Shanghai steel prices for rebar, VAT excluded
  • Official daily crude steel production
  • Annualised crude steel production based on year-to-date official numbers
  • EU28 crude steel production with selected at-risk assets – see Key Companies section for details
  • Net imports of steel to the EU are falling...
  • ...and domestic production is declining
  • US HRC prices and US-China price spread
  • US weekly production and utilisation rate
  • Quarterly and annual steel prices
  • Quarterly and annual metallics prices

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global steel markets short-term outlook data October 2019.xls

    XLS 292.00 KB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

    PDF 1.32 MB

  • Document

    Global steel short-term outlook October 2019

    ZIP 1.12 MB

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