Commodity Market Report
Global zinc long-term outlook Q1 2020
Report summary
The zinc price has fallen sharply as measures to control the spread of the coronavirus trigger a rapid decline in zinc consumption and increased likelihood of a global recession. This has necessitated a dramatic change to our base case assumptions for zinc demand. The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040, including; • Revisions to our global zinc consumption forecasts • Impact of coronavirus on demand and the likely trajectory of the recovery • New price forecasts and price scenarios • The coronavirus/low price/high TC supply correction • Mine supply developments over the forecast period • The first "In focus" looks at how the impact of this global pandemic will accelerate the migration of manufacturing away from China
Table of contents
- Demand outlook
-
Supply outlook
- Mine production
- Refined supply
-
Market Balance and Price Outlook
- Near term price forecast
- Long-term zinc price thresholds
-
Changes since Q4 2019
- Demand
- Smelter Supply
- Beyond coronavirus: Supply Chain diversification in the long run
- Risks to forecast: n ear- to medium-term
- Risk to forecast: long-term
-
Regional mine production capability
- Project allowance
- Africa
- Asia (ex-China)
- China
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
- Russia and the Caspian
- Africa
- Asia (ex-China)
- China
- Europe
- Middle East
- Latin America
- North America
- Oceania
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- Coronavirus is forecast to result in a sharp drop in global zinc consumption
- Global slab zinc consumption by region
- Global economic growth is becoming less zinc intensive
- Summary of zinc mine production capability changes
- World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- Mine production
- Requirement for new mine production
- Smelter production
- Requirement and sources of future smelter production
- Components of the Mine Disruption and Project allowances
- Forecast stocks and prices
- Price forecasts and refined market balances
- Concentrate market balances
- LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2040
- Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
- Cumulative impact of changes to forecast for the period 2019-2023
- Consumption forecast has been cut by 1.18Mt compared with Q4 2019
- 2020 mine production capability forecast has been cut by 0.5Mt Zn compared with Q4 2019
- Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2019-2023
- 2020 smelter capability forecast has been cut by 0.01Mt Zn compared with Q4 2019
- Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2019-2023
- Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
- Summary of zinc smelter production capability changes
- Smelter capacity utilisation
- World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
What's included
This report contains:
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