Commodity Market Report

Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2017

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27 September 2017

Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2017

Report summary

The Global Zinc Metal Market Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2035. In the medium to long term, the key issue is whether the zinc mining industry will be able to develop sufficient new mine capacity to offset scheduled mine closures and the incremental increase in global demand. This structural issue has been exacerbated by the decision of Glencore, the world's largest zinc miner to cut production which is likely to force smelters to cut production also.

Table of contents

    • Key Points
    • Demand – what's changed?
    • Supply – what's changed?
    • Overview
      • China
      • Japan
      • India
      • Europe
      • USA
      • First and end uses
      • First use
      • End use
    • Mine Production
      • Overview
      • Africa
      • Asia
    • Zinc market dynamic
      • Zinc metal and concentrate stock cycle (kt Zn)
    • Supply and Demand - Base Case and Long Term
    • Long-term Zinc Price Forecasts
    • Scenario analysis

Tables and charts

This report includes 48 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity in all of the world's major economies is expanding
  • Global slab zinc consumption by region
  • Global slab zinc consumption by region
  • Global slowdown a risk
  • The need to lighten cars helped reduce zinc's intensity of use
  • Exchange stocks and price
  • LME cash zinc prices and base case forecast 1950- 2035
  • Sources of future supply
  • Forecast stocks and prices
  • Price forecasts and refined marked balances
  • Concentrate market balances
  • US$ Trade Weighted Index versus zinc price with TWI averages
  • Zinc price forecasts (nominal $/t)
  • Zinc price forecasts (real $/t)
  • Comparison of base case and scenario outcomes
  • Rising land sales an upside risk to real-estate sector?
  • China totally dominates global zinc consumption
  • Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
  • Asia (ex-China) consumption
  • Indian first use is dominated by galvanizing
  • All the main sectors of the European economy are expanding
  • European zinc consumption will stagnate
  • Turkey is forecast to become Europe's largest zinc consumer
  • Infrastructure related construction activity down in 2017
  • Global first use consumption for zinc
  • Global zinc consumption by end use
  • World capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
  • African zinc mine production
  • Asian zinc mine production
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Slide Pack Zinc LTO Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 1017.65 KB

  • Document

    Zinc tables LTO Q3 2017.pdf

    PDF 2.06 MB

  • Document

    Demand main changes zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 244.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 1.45 MB

  • Document

    Production rankings zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 156.50 KB

  • Document

    Equity Production zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 7.86 MB

  • Document

    Supply main changes zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 192.50 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 2.41 MB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 3.21 MB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices zinc LTO Q3 2017.xls

    XLS 639.00 KB

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2017

    PDF 4.18 MB

  • Document

    Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2017

    ZIP 10.32 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 87.69 KB

  • Document


    PDF 3.06 MB

  • Document


    PDF 777.07 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 377.66 KB

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