Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 28 September 2020

Get this report

$10,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Share link

First name
Last name
Job Title
Company
Email
Telephone

Country

Message

Consent

Please keep me informed about Wood Mackenzie products, services and events.

Submit Category

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

Report summary

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic continues to be the dominant influence on the zinc market, with the mine supply disruptions caused mitigated by elevated concentrate stocks at the beginning of the crisis. As a consequence, surpluses in the refined market are forecast to result in a sharp rise in zinc stocks. However, prices have held up and we expect them to remain at elevated levels despite rising refined stocks. The Global Zinc Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040, including; • Revisions to our global zinc consumption forecasts • The likely trajectory of the recovery in demand • New price forecasts and price scenarios • Mine supply developments over the forecast period • The implications of revisions on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040

Medium-term forecasts
Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Risks to forecast
- Short term - upside
- Short term - downside
- Long term - upside
- Long term - downside
- Risks to the forecast dramatic surge in new mine production
Overview
- China
- India
- USA
- Europe
Changes to froecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- China
- Oceania
- Smelter supply changes since Q2 2020

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:

Price forecasts and refined market balances table
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
Concentrate market balances table

Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
Requirement for new mine production
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Mine production capability dips in 2020. New project capacity and mine life extensions needed from 2024
Breakdown of the mine production adjustment
Mine project allowance breakdown
Requirement for new mine production
2020 mine production capability forecast has been cut by 254kt Zn compared with Q2 2020
Cumulative impact of changes to the mine production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024
Scenario price forecasts in real dollars
Scenario price forecasts in nominal dollars
Sources of new production capability in 2021 (Mt Zn)
Purchasing managers indexes point to V-shaped recovery for China
Chinese per capita consumption will not track Japan and South Korea
Europe's recovery shows signs of faltering
Chinese outlook upgraded
Smelter production capability
World smelter capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
Requirement of future smelter production
Smelter utilisation forecast to rise in the medium-term
2020 smelter capability forecast has been cut by 0.01Mt Zn compared with Q2 2020
Cumulative impact of changes to the smelter production capability forecast for the period 2020-2024