Commodity market report

Global zinc short-term outlook August 2016

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Report summary

The decline in spot treatment charges into China from last year's average of $200/t to the current level of $105/t has provided fundamental evidence of the tightening of the concentrate market. This clear improvement in zinc's fundamentals has been the primary driving force behind the rise of the zinc price this year. Although the price rally lost momentum in August it still managed to climb to its highest level since May 2015 and reaffirmed zinc's position as the top performing exchange traded metal with a year to date gain of 45%. As the tight concentrate market starts to constrain refined metal production we forecast that inventories of refined zinc will be drawn down to critically low levels around the middle of 2017 providing additional fundamental support to further price strength.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Data Tables Zinc STO August 2016.xls

    XLS 290.00 KB

  • Document

    Global zinc short-term outlook August 2016

    PDF 497.41 KB

  • Document

    Global zinc short-term outlook August 2016

    ZIP 570.92 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

Images

  • August and September are popular months for delivering zinc into New Orleans
  • Exchange stocks are not yet at critically low levels
  • The zinc price breaks away from the other metals
  • Falling prices prompt galvanized sheet production cuts by CISA members
  • Chinese automotive production growth slowing
  • Japanese brass production has been hit by falling automotive output
  • Index of smelter income from imported concentrate
  • Index of smelter income from domestic concentrate
  • Chinese sources of concentrate imports
  • Index of monthly Chinese mine production

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply and demand balance
  • Treatment charges $/t of concentrate
  • Concentrate Balances
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Key indicators of zinc consumption
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Global zinc consumption - (kt Zn)
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Global zinc smelter production (kt Zn)
  • Supply: Table 8
  • Chinese trade data (kt)
  • Global slab zinc supply/demand balance (kt)

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