Commodity market report
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28 Pages

Global zinc short-term outlook December 2015


Global zinc short-term outlook December 2015

Report summary

The zinc price plumbed fresh depths in December falling to its lowest level since July 2009, making it the second worst performer on the LME after nickel. However, with the tonnage of mine production cuts caused by economic distress at relatively low levels investors are likely to maintain pressure on the zinc price in 2016.

The negative sentiment surrounding zinc, together with revisions to our supply and demand forecasts, have prompted us to cut our price forecasts for next year. As a result, the price is forecast to average $1550/t in Q1 2016 and $1650/t in Q2. However, in Q3, as tightness in the concentrate market becomes evident and starts to constrain smelter production, we forecast that the price will strengthen to average $1700/t. In Q4, expectations that the refined market will start to tighten markedly in 2017 will, we believe, prompt anticipatory buying and a price averaging $2400/t in the final quarter of the year. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global zinc short-term outlook December 2015 PDF - 509.79 KB 28 Pages, 15 Tables, 7 Figures
  • Data Tables Zinc STO December 2015.xls XLS - 298.00 KB

Description

As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Zinc Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Market developments
  • Demand
    • Global
    • China
    • USA
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market
    • December mine production news
    • Smelter production news

In this report there are 22 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Zinc key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Base metals battered again
    • Money managers have been disappointed by zinc performance
    • Zinc prices falls to a six and half year low
    • Price forecasts and global quarterly supply and demand balance
  • Demand
    • Cumulative change for 2015-2017 from previous forecast
    • Global forecast comparison
    • Demand: Image 3
    • Galvanized sheet and metallic coated sheet production
    • Key indicators of zinc consumption
  • Supply
    • Treatment charges $/t of concentrate
    • The Chinese arbitrage adjusted spot TC remains high
    • Concentrate Balances
    • Price-induced Zinc Mine Production Capability Losses kt Zn
    • Zinc mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
    • Zinc smelter capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
    • Global zinc consumption - (kt Zn)
    • Global zinc mine production (kt Zn)
    • Global zinc smelter production (kt Zn)
    • Zinc stocks, prices and premiums
    • Chinese trade data (kt)
    • Global slab zinc supply/demand balance (kt)
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