Commodity market report
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30 Pages

Global zinc short-term outlook May 2016

Global zinc short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

The zinc price has fallen from the 2016 high of $1943/t to settle just below $1900/t at the end of May. Although it lost some momentum in May, the zinc price has held up better than the other base metals on the LME.

Smelter output will not keep pace with demand this year or next. Two years of refined deficits provide fundamental support which will be amplified by the activities of investors to propel the price to a cyclical high of $3750/t in 2018. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global zinc short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 676.21 KB 30 Pages, 15 Tables, 10 Figures
  • Data Tables Zinc STO May 2016.xls XLS - 288.00 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Zinc Short Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Market Developments
  • Demand
    • Global
    • China
    • USA
      • Galvanized sheet and metallic coated sheet production
  • Supply
    • Concentrate market
      • Concentrate Balances
    • May mine production news
    • Smelter production news
      • Zinc smelter capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
      • Global zinc consumption - (kt Zn)
      • Global zinc mine production (kt Zn)
      • Zinc stocks, prices and premiums

In this report there are 25 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Zinc key forecasts
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Day to price volatility has moved sharply higher...
    • ... and co-movement of prices has strengthened
    • Exchange stocks resume decline
    • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Demand
    • Activity in China's real-estate sector surges
    • Chinese galvanized sheet prices soar
    • US non-residential construction spending is posting good growth in zinc intensive sectors
    • AIA Index points to galvanized sheet shipments picking up in Q3
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Key indicators of zinc consumption
  • Supply
    • Treatment charges $/t of concentrate
    • Value of China spot TC plus arbitrage has fallen below the domestic TC in 2016
    • Sources of Chinese concentrate imports
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Zinc mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Zn)
    • Glencore Q1 2016 mine production reduced due to cuts (kt Zn or Pb in concentrate)
    • Chinese smelter production index
    • Supply: Table 5
    • Supply: Table 6
    • Supply: Table 7
    • Global zinc smelter production (kt Zn)
    • Supply: Table 9
    • Chinese trade data (kt)
    • Global slab zinc supply/demand balance (kt)
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