Forecast revisions result in a tighter seaborne market than previously expected; and as usual, it’s all down to China! An upward adjustment to hot metal production in China, at a time when domestic ore production is close to capacity, feeds through to stronger demand for imported ore. This year’s tightness could persist well into 2021, but as China transitions to less steel intensive growth and the world ex-China remains in recession, we forecast significantly lower prices from 2022/23. The long-term balance between supply and demand is now more closely aligned than previously forecast, but we still expect stagnation or moderate contraction in seaborne trade after 2025. In simple terms, falling Chinese imports will more than offset demand growth in the world ex-China. But this does not mean it’s all over for iron ore. Our price forecast for 2021-25 is $73/t – well below the $90-100/t range achieved in 2019-20 but still an exceptionally high price in relation to production costs.