The end of (another) incredible year for iron ore, with spot prices surging to their highest since the 2011 boom and the low cost majors reporting EBITDA margins close to 80%! Another significant upward adjustment to hot metal production in China feeds through to stronger demand for seaborne iron ore. A key change since our Q3 update is that the world ex-China has now joined the party, with steel production and prices on the rise across the globe. Medium term forecasts for iron ore supply have been scaled back. Largely due to Vale’s slower than expected recovery post-Brumadinho. Significant risks to future Australian supply growth have come to the fore following a parliamentary enquiry into Aboriginal Heritage laws. While the near-term outlook for seaborne iron ore is undeniably tight with upside price risk, the longer term outlook continues to evolve as the green steel transition gathers momentum, heralding big changes to the future steel raw material mix.