Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets - long-term outlook - Q4 2020

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21 December 2020

Iron ore markets - long-term outlook - Q4 2020

Report summary

The end of (another) incredible year for iron ore, with spot prices surging to their highest since the 2011 boom and the low cost majors reporting EBITDA margins close to 80%! Another significant upward adjustment to hot metal production in China feeds through to stronger demand for seaborne iron ore. A key change since our Q3 update is that the world ex-China has now joined the party, with steel production and prices on the rise across the globe. Medium term forecasts for iron ore supply have been scaled back. Largely due to Vale’s slower than expected recovery post-Brumadinho. Significant risks to future Australian supply growth have come to the fore following a parliamentary enquiry into Aboriginal Heritage laws. While the near-term outlook for seaborne iron ore is undeniably tight with upside price risk, the longer term outlook continues to evolve as the green steel transition gathers momentum, heralding big changes to the future steel raw material mix.

Table of contents

    • Demand: China in a world of it’s own!
    • Supply: upward adjustment to global export forecast.
    • Price forecast revisions:
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
    • Indian reserves and production
    • Key Indian producers
    • Indian policy framework
  • Africa
  • Canada
  • Russian Federation/Ukraine/Kazakhstan
  • Sweden
  • Chile
  • Peru
  • Introduction:
  • Methodology:
  • Dry bulk freight outlook – September 2020

Tables and charts

This report includes 12 images and tables including:

  • Implied Global Balance
  • Cash cost curve
  • China - LTO mined iron ore supply
  • 2019 average metallics consumption and ferrous waste generation in China
  • Demand for iron ore
  • Boxplot: West Australia – China YTD2020 (vs. 2019 average)
  • Boxplot: Brazil – China YTD2020 (vs. 2019 average)
  • FOB + Freight (West Australia – China)
  • FOB + Freight (Brazil – China)
  • Dated Brent price forecasts and bunker prices YoY % forecasts mix (RHS)
  • Key iron ore routes forecasts

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets - long-term outlook - Q4 2020

    PDF 1.00 MB

  • Document

    Iron Ore Long Term Outlook Interim Update Q4 2020

    PDF 1.52 MB

  • Document


    PDF 519.80 KB