Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook April 2022

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29 April 2022

Iron ore markets short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

Iron ore took a big hit in the final week of April as heightened concern over supply chain disruption and inflationary pressure provoked a market wide sell-off. But having started the month at $160/t and finished at $140/t, April’s average of $151/t was still the highest monthly value since August 2021. As far as monthly average prices are concerned, we believe this is as good as it gets in the current mini-cycle. Our H2 forecast is $130/t, marginally below a projected $140/t for H1. Beijing’s balancing act between human safety and economic stability remains the key short term driver of iron ore. We know from recent experience that Chinese iron ore demand has potential to bounce back quicker than the broader economy if steel intensive infrastructure is prioritised in the government’s economic kickstart programme, but on balance we feel that seaborne supply and demand will become more closely aligned as the year progresses and prices will trend lower.

Table of contents

  • Bad news is good news in China
  • Technical perspective
  • High grade ore, lump and pellet
  • Update on Ukraine
  • Indian supply performs well in March; pellet exports gain steam
  • Iron ore port inventories down 8.7 Mt in April
  • Dry bulk freight market should start recovering on seasonal improvement

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Quarterly price forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality
  • Pellet premium
  • Lump premium
  • Ukraine's iron ore exports
  • Russia's iron ore exports
  • Iron ore market balance and prices
  • Brazil iron ore exports
  • Brazil iron ore exports: by shippers
  • Australia iron ore exports
  • Australia iron ore exports: by shippers
  • India iron ore production
  • India iron ore exports
  • China domestic iron ore mines utilization
  • China domestic iron ore production
  • China BF and EAF utilisation rate
  • Daily production of CISA member companies
  • China iron ore imports
  • China imports by origin
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Chinese total steel inventories
  • Brazil – China freight rate
  • West Australia – China freight rate

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook April 2022

    PDF 1.07 MB