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Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook August 2022

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31 August 2022

Iron ore markets short-term outlook August 2022

Report summary

Iron ore price dropped again below $100/t at the end of August as Covid-19 and a property sector slowdown pressured steel demand in China. However, supply side issues have limited the downside and China’s pro-growth efforts create upside to current prices. China's economic growth continues to be affected by Covid-19 while its real estate market is struggling. But Beijing is taking more steps to boost economic activity (investment in infrastructure projects, cutting key interest rates to increase financial liquidity). Our view remains that from an iron ore balance of risks point of view, iron ore should rebound from current level on the back of China’s stimulus measures.

Table of contents

  • Supply issues provide a floor to wobbly iron ore prices, stimulus measures in China create upside
  • Technical perspective
  • High grade ore, lump and pellet
  • Situation in Ukraine is deteriorating further
  • Weakness in India iron ore production continues
  • Chinese domestic ore supply may improve in 2H 2022
  • Capesize rates fall to six-month lows on uncertain economic outlook
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories stabilised in August

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Iron ore / steel price ratio
  • Iron ore / steel price performance
  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Quarterly price forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci retracement levels
  • M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality
  • Pellet premium vs inventories of pellets at Chinese ports
  • Lump premium vs inventories of lump at Chinese ports
  • Supply summary snapshot
  • Quarterly market balance
  • Brazil iron ore exports
  • Brazil iron ore exports: by shippers
  • Australia iron ore exports
  • Australia iron ore exports: by shippers
  • India iron ore production
  • India iron ore exports
  • China iron ore mines utilisation
  • Iron ore inventories at 64 Chinese mills (in days)
  • China BF and EAF utilization rate
  • Daily production of CISA member companies
  • China's iron ore imports
  • China's iron ore imports by origins
  • Brazil to China freight rates
  • West Australia to China freight rates
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Iron ore inventories at 64 mills

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook August 2022

    PDF 1.21 MB