Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook July 2022

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29 July 2022

Iron ore markets short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

Iron ore price slumped to its lowest level this year on a weak demand environment. Covid restrictions in China combined with extreme weather in the country have been detrimental to steel demand. Steel production underperformance could persist over the next couple of months in China and many risks on global economic growth exist. However, we think that from an iron ore balance of risks point of view, there is more price upside than downside on the back of Chinese efforts to stimulate its economy.

Table of contents

  • China's demand acceleration is months away, but sentiment could get a boost
  • Technical perspective
  • High grade ore, lump and pellet
  • Update on Ukraine
  • Hefty duties impact exports and hence production in India
  • Chinese domestic ore supply recovery constrained by low steel mills’ margins
  • Dry bulk freight market remains rangebound
  • Iron ore port inventories up 9.6 Mt in July

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Quarterly price forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci retracement levels
  • M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality
  • Pellet premium vs inventories of pellets at Chinese ports
  • Lump premium vs inventories of lump at Chinese ports
  • Ukraine’s concentrate production and exports
  • Russia’s pellet production and exports
  • Supply summary snapshot
  • Quarterly market balance
  • Brazil iron ore exports
  • Brazil iron ore exports: by shippers
  • Australia iron ore exports
  • Australia iron ore exports: by shippers
  • India iron ore production
  • India iron ore exports
  • China iron ore mines utilisation
  • Investment in Fixed Assets (cumulative YoY)
  • China BF and EAF utilization rate
  • Daily production of CISA member companies
  • China iron ore imports
  • Chinese steel trade (semis and finished)
  • Brazil-China freight rates
  • West Australia – China freight rates
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories and offtake

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook July 2022

    PDF 1.19 MB