Iron ore markets short-term outlook June 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 30 June 2021

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Report summary

Iron ore's roller-coaster ride continues - and for the time being we're still on the way up! Following the wild volatility of May that saw prices fluctuate within a $50/t range, June was a month of consolidation within a higher and narrower band of $203-223/t. The market for high grade ore and direct charge feed remains hot due to a combination of supply constraints and a desire, particularly from ex-China steel mills, to maintain the focus on maximising productivity, despite margin compression. We still think iron ore prices will be lower in H2 than H1, on the basis that Chinese demand slows while Brazilian supply grows - but recent experience shows neither of these is a safe bet! Read our monthly update for the latest analysis on short term supply/demand dynamics and price outlook.

Another month, another all time high!
Technical indicators – China’s efforts to cool prices fail against continued strong steel demand
Global overview – bouncing back!
Chinese demand - upbeat in June
Brazilian exports on the rise ...
... but high-grade products underperform
Chinese supply hit by Shanxi shutdown
India sets ground for another round of mine lease auctions
Inventories – Chinese p ort inventories continue to decline
Freight – Capesize rates down but well supported

Tables and charts

This report includes 17 images and tables including:

Monthly average iron ore price (US$/t CFR)
Key quarterly forecast
62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels

62% Fe Forward Curves
CISA 10-day run-rates kept upbeating
Steel mills actively dredged iron ore from ports
Brazilian exports are on the rise, but supply of high grade fines from northern Brazil continues to underperform.
Despite lower supply of Carajas fines, high grade premiums have eased – mainly due to steel mill margin compression.
Chinese domestic mine utilisation rate remains at high level.
Shanxi iron ore price perform stronger than that in other regions.
Indian iron ore production
Indian iron ore exports
Chinese iron ore port inventories - seasonally
Chinese total steel inventories
Capesize freight rates to China
Share of freight rate in 62% Fe iron ore price
Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)