Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - November 2020

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27 November 2020

Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - November 2020

Report summary

Having briefly dipped to $117/t CFR at the start of November, the benchmark 62% Fe fines index hit $130/t CFR in the final few days of the month. The monthly average price for November was $124/t CFR, a new high for the year. But can it last? To what extent is this latest bounce driven by short term re-stocking versus something more sustainable? Recent vaccine announcements have provided a huge boost to financial markets, but the underlying global economy remains in a dire state. As far as seaborne iron ore is concerned we remain confident that prices will be lower in 2021 than 2020 as Chinese steel production growth moderates and seaborne iron ore supply accelerates, but in the short term it’s hard to find compelling arguments in favour of significantly lower prices.

Table of contents

  • China versus the rest of the world!
  • Chinese demand still running hot, despite the winter chill!
  • Chinese domestic ore production remains high – but for how much longer?
  • Meanwhile in India – this year’s iron ore export boom should reverse in 2021.
  • Global seaborne supply - a tale of three quarters
  • Upward adjustment to global export forecast - coming soon!
  • Back to $130/t !
  • Technical indicators:
  • Time spreads have widened
  • Dry bulk freight market

Tables and charts

This report includes 21 images and tables including:

  • Utilisation rate of 126 iron ore mine companies
  • Blast furnace burden ratios of sinter, pellet and lump (%)
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • A strong Q3 for Vale .
  • but year-to-date Australia is the big winner
  • The fall and rise of iron ore!
  • Chinese rebar margin and the 62/65 price spread
  • Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • Cal+1 vs Cal+2* – Seasonally
  • Cal-21 vs Cal-22
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • Key iron ore routes with Nov-20 averages
  • Capesize spot freights, US$wmt, to China (Beilun/Baoshan)
  • Iron ore loadings from West Australia to China, Mt
  • Chinese iron ore port inventory, Mt
  • Seaborne exports of iron ore from Australia
  • Seaborne exports of iron ore from Brazil
  • Pig iron daily production of CISA memeber companies
  • Crude steel daily production of CISA memeber companies
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)
  • Quarterly iron ore production - selected companies (Mt, 100% basis)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - November 2020

    PDF 1.04 MB