Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook November 2021
Report summary
The year-end price slide we signalled last month came sooner and sharper than expected. By mid-November the benchmark index had dipped below $90/t, dragging the monthly average down to an 18-month low of $95/t. China of course is the driver. The country's pig iron production is now on track to fall by at least 5% this year, wiping out almost the entire growth achieved in 2020. The near-term outlook is clouded by the timing of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February 2022. Stricter than normal winter curbs on sintering and steelmaking will delay any meaningful recovery in demand for iron ore until late Q1-2022. All this at a time of high and rising inventory of iron ore at Chinese ports suggests more downside than upside risk on a 3-month view.
Table of contents
- Ending the year on a low
-
Back above $100 - but maybe not for long!
- Technical perspective
- High grade ore, lump and pellet
-
Ending the year on a low
- In China last year's gains = this year's losses!
- Short term prospects for supply and demand remain bleak
- Chinese imports of iron ore - on track to fall by 60 Mt
-
Positioning for the future
- Short term outlook for Brazilian supply
- Short term outlook for Australian supply
- Indian exports plummet as margins shrink
- Iron ore port inventories continue to build
- Freight – dry bulk freight market normalises
Tables and charts
This report includes 23 images and tables including:
- Iron ore prices
- Raw material prices and hot metal spread
- Key quarterly forecast
- Chinese iron ore port inventories
- Traders’ iron ore stocks at ports
- Capesize freight rates to China
- Chinese coal and iron ore imports
- 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- 62% Fe price and front month spread
- Pellet premium
- Lump premium
- Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
- Daily production of CISA member companies
- Chinese iron ore imports
- Chinese imports (by source)
- Brazilian iron ore exports
- Chinese iron ore port stocks (by origin)
- Australian iron ore exports
- Australian iron ore exports: majors only
- Low grade prices and Indian exports take a dive!
- Indian pellet export spread shrinks
What's included
This report contains:
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