Prices averaged $120/t in October - the first monthly decline since the peak of the pandemic in April. Is this a sign of things to come? We think the gentle easing since mid-October will persist through Nov/Dec, but not by enough to meet our previous Q4-2020 forecast of $100/t (now revised to $110/t). Supportive factors in the short term include: - ongoing strength in Chinese hot metal production - Vale may keep shipments below production to rebuild inventory - falling Chinese mine supply through the winter - weather related disruption to supply chains in Australia and Brazil. Longer term we still think prices have further to fall and we remain concerned by the growing imbalance between steel production and consumption in China. The property sector holds the key!