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Iron ore project review 2022

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30 December 2022

Iron ore project review 2022

Report summary

The number of active projects in our data set has increased from 85 in 2021 to 115 in 2022, and the estimated value of these projects is now US$103 billion, up from US$91 billion last year. After 3 straight years of increases amid an unexpected and prolonged supply shock, iron ore prices lost steam in 2022, primarily driven by China's strict Covid-19 protocols, and the property sector collapsed. However, expectations of structurally higher prices over the long run translated into a significant increase in spending (or plans of) on new projects or expansion plans. Our estimated average capital intensity for 2022 is US$112/tonne, which is 8.5% higher than last year. While companies have tried to operate on a capital-light basis for several years now, we think that operating costs are going to gradually increase.

Table of contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Yesterday's projects, today's mines
  • Advancing projects
    • Simandou
    • Nimba
    • Zogota
    • Nimba (Yekepa) Phase 2
  • Project incentive prices
  • Capital Costs

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Proposed capacity and capital expenditure
  • Project incentive price (Simandou at 12% IRR)
  • Project capital intensity
  • Average capital intensity
  • Projects with capex changes

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore project review 2022

    PDF 914.28 KB

  • Document

    Projects For Insight 2022.xlsx

    XLSX 250.31 KB