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Metals & Mining Snapshot: long-term outlook Q4 2018

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20 December 2018

Metals & Mining Snapshot: long-term outlook Q4 2018

Report summary

Copper – Sentiment over fundamentals Since 2017, over 2.0Mt of projects have now been committed to. Approvals have been slow, when compared to previous cycles. “Cautious and disciplined” has been the industry mantra. Steel – Peak Chinese demand still to come China’s capacity rationalisation has largely run its course. By 2024 China will install 120 Mt of new hot metal capacity, 81% in the contestable market, largely offsetting closures. We expect a net capacity decline of only 3Mtpa compared to 2018. Met Coal – Stronger for longer Wood Mackenzie still expects prices to fall from their current highs in the medium term; but, we have slowed the decent and expect HCC prices will on average stay above US$150/t until 2023.

Table of contents

  • Copper - Sentiment over fundamentals
  • Steel - Peak Chinese demand still to come
  • Metallurgical Coal - Stronger for longer

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Mining projects committed to since the start of 2017
  • China’s steel production forecast revision
  • China’s steel production and changes by route
  • HCC by status and seaborne demand (Mt)
  • YOY change in HCC supply from projects

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    M&M Snapshot_long-term outlook Q4 2018 slidedeck.pdf

    PDF 3.00 MB

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