Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - short-term outlook - January 2021
Report summary
What is going on with global steel prices? • HRC prices in the US and the EU have doubled in just six to eight months. • US and EU rebar prices are up over US$150/tonne in the last two months. • Chinese price rises – up 40% since April – are impressive but lost against gains elsewhere. Such a high base has been established in January that our 2021 forecasts have been exposed as too bearish – we have revised upwards. In this month’s short-term outlook we discuss reasons to believe price hikes could (at least in part) hold through Q1. But in steel markets there is always latent capacity – it has just been a little slow to start after pandemic shut-downs – so prices can only move in one direction from here.
Table of contents
- Will Chinese crude steel output surprise on the upside in 2021?
- Indian steel demand to grow 15% this year
- Unfathomable US HRC price rises
- EU HRC price bonanza may hold for Q1 but prices must move down
- East and Southeast Asia
-
China
- 2021: up or down?
- We are confident about
- What are the uncertainties?
- Resilience amid new Covid cases and surging raw materials prices
- Japan
- South Korea
- Indonesia
- Thailand
-
India
- Strong steel demand outlook for India in 2021
- Supply-demand balance to remain healthy, aided by limited exports
-
EU and UK
- Why are further price gains unlikely?
- Why could prices hold through Q1?
- Where is this view risked?
- A jump in rebar prices is fundamentally different
- A bright finish to 2020 for production
-
US
- Golden days are back!
- First and foremost, demand
- Supply response has been sluggish
- Scrap is (also) up!
- Iron ore
- Coal
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- AFSU (columns left axis) and growth (lines right axis)
- Key annual data
- Japan crude steel production trend
- Japan vehicle production in 2020
- Crude steel production in 2020
- Trade balance is improving
- Thailand: monthly apparent steel consumption
- Southeast Asia steel imports (semis+finished)
- EU prices
- Nationwide BF utilisation rate versus Tangshan
- Margins of HRC and rebar
- Automobile sales growth
- Loan growth indexed to March 2020
- Production and demand key leading indicators index
- US HRC and scrap prices
- Monthly price history
- Global crude-steel production
- Global PMI indicators
- Emerging markets apparent finished steel use
- Mature economies steel consumption
- Indian crude steel production and growth
- Indian steel exports
- US crude steel production and capacity utilisation
- US employment
- Summary
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Global noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2024
The latest noble steel alloys strategic planning outlook forecasts global supply, demand and prices for molybdenum, vanadium and niobium.
$10,000
Commodity Market Report
Global steel markets short-term outlook February 2024
Weakness in Chinese markets drags on; recovery to pick pace from Q2
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
LNG short-term analytics: Supply tracker
Weekly short-term LNG supply tracker by liquefaction plant
$4,000
