Commodity Market Report
Steel short-term outlook January 2022
Report summary
China wants blue skies for the Winter Olympics. When the games begin, pollution control will tighten and steel mills will be expected to reduce output by 30%. Later in the year, curbing property speculation and emissions reduction remain on the agenda. But at the same time, China will go all-out to keep GDP growth on target. How China balances these two priorities will be crucial for steel demand growth. Also in this month’s steel markets outlook: • The semi-conductor chip shortage means less vehicles will be produced, particularly in the US and the EU. But a focus on high-margin units means steel demand can counterintuitively post double-digit demand growth this year. • Japan and Korea will benefit from the “more steel demand per semi-conductor” phenomenon as they export high-grade, EV-ready steels. • Indian manufacturing demand is also weak. But infrastructure and property growth will mean full-year demand growth hits double digits.
Table of contents
-
China
- Strong production in December restricted 2021 production decline to 3% year-on-year
- Production momentum improved in January, led by BOF production
- but will not be sustained throughout Q1
- Policy easing to continue in 2022, benefiting construction sector
-
US
- Automotive: is the worst over?
- Clean metallics hunt: it’s game on
- EU and UK
- Turkey
-
India
- Dwindling steel production growth
- Weak demand in the manufacturing sector
- but infrastructure and property sector look promising
- What to expect for the rest of Q1
-
Japan and South Korea
- Will exports continue to rescue the steel industry in 2022?
- Trade diversification on the anvil
- A few similarities and divergent trends emerge while assessing the export data
- Our expectation for 2022
- Iron Ore
- Coal
- Scrap
- Green steel initiatives
- Other industry developments
Tables and charts
This report includes 14 images and tables including:
- HMS Scrap CFR Turkey by currency
- Turkey crude steel output 5 year range
- Monthly steel production (Mt)
- Raw material prices
- Steel margins
- Utilisation rates (%)
- Daily hot metal production (Mt)
- Metallics imports
- Auto and light truck assemblies and inventory to sales ratio
- Index of Manufacturing
- Crude steel production and growth
- Japan: Trade volume and trade balance growth
- South Korea: Trade volume and trade balance growth
- Trade matrix
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
LNG short-term analytics: Monthly outlook
Monthly update of LNG market outlook including price forecast and market webinars.
$4,000
Commodity Market Report
India coal short-term outlook April 2024
Indian coal production touched 1 billion tons in the financial year 2023-24
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
LNG short-term analytics: Demand tracker
Frequently updated short-term LNG demand forecasts (by regas terminal)
$4,000
