Commodity Market Report
Steel short-term outlook May 2022
Report summary
The global steel consumption outlook turns bearish. Impact of Russia-Ukraine war, rising cost inflation, supply chain disruptions and slowing investments are weighing on demand prospects. Chinese recovery seems more plausible in June considering easing lockdowns, pent-up consumer spending and revival of construction and industrial activities. Gloomy demand outlook and rising supply with weigh on steel prices in the near term. The implication of Russia-Ukraine war is a key monitorable to our forecast. Our May short-term outlook covers: • Near term demand outlook and status of leading consumption indicators • Supply-side scenario • Key risks and opportunities • Steel price outlook and cost implications
Table of contents
-
China
- Demand
- Supply
- Trade
- Prices
-
US
- Demand
- Biden’s infrastructure bill: growth is around the corner but not in 2022
- Supply and Trade
- If domestic supply fails
- imports come to the rescue
- Prices
- High base to linger in 2022
-
EU27 and UK
- Demand
- Fear of demand destruction looms in Europe due to cost inflation
- Worst scenario for the automotive sector
- Supply
- Crude steel production in Europe down in 2022
- Prices
- European steel prices and demand come off but Indian duties could provide some support
-
Russia and Ukraine
- Ukraine’s lost volume
- Russia’s increasing isolation
- EU, UK, and the US are suspending all duties on imports from Ukraine
-
Turkey
- Turkey’s steel exports increase
-
India
- Demand
- Supply
- Trade
- Prices
-
Japan and South Korea
- Demand
- Construction to be the key growth determinant
- Automotive to disappoint
- Manufacturing to stay put
- Supply
- Steel Costs
- Iron Ore
- Coal
- Scrap
Tables and charts
This report includes 27 images and tables including:
- Key indicators
- Transportation index
- Steel consumption (Mt)
- Utilisation levels (%)
- Finished steel inventory (Mt)
- Steel prices (RMB/t)
- Steel margins (RMB/t)
- Non-residential spending and IP for construction steel
- Production and trade
- US and China HRC prices and premia
- US HRC and rebar prices and premia
- EU Passenger car registrations
- EU-27 + UK crude steel and hot metal production
- Global HRC prices
- Pig iron and scrap prices
- Russia and Ukraine crude steel production
- Russia and Ukraine steel exports in 2021
- Ukraine steelmaking status
- Turkey steel trade (semis and finished)
- Turkey steel exports – 1Q22
- Indian HRC and exports prices
- Indian steel production and exports
- Quarterly steel demand
- Building Construction investment
- Civil Engineering investment
- Key indicators
- Crude steel production
What's included
This report contains:
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