China syndrome: Future nickel supply and long term price

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03 October 2013

China syndrome: Future nickel supply and long term price

Report summary

In the two prior insights in this trilogy - "The Magnificent Seven: Current status of new laterite Ni projects" and "Mission Impossible: Averting the long-term nickel shortage" – the underlying conclusion was that the combination of commissioning issues and delays in construction that would almost inevitably be associated future projects would make it very difficult for "western" producers to provide sufficient nickel units to meet our long term demand requirement of 400kt by 2025. Indeed...

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Test for the west
  • Chinese demand – leading the world
  • Chinese resourcefulness - the rise of NPI
  • Chinese future – sufficient NPI capacity already exists
  • Indonesian imponderable
  • The sting – less from the west
  • Conclusion

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • China drives long term demand for nickel
  • Chinese total primary nickel consumption (kt)
  • Chinese primary nickel use in stainless only (kt)
  • Chinese total nickel use in stainless (kt)
  • Chinese total nickel use in stainless (%)
  • The growing share of NPI in primary nickel use in Chinese stainless
  • Additional NPI needed to meet long term NPI requirement in Chinese stainless steel
  • Global long-term nickel requirement from China and RoW
  • RoW nickel requirement of 200kt needs incentive price of about $10/lb

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