Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2013

Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2013

Report summary

Nickel prices to be undermined by sustained NPI output during 2014, as Chinese ore stocks offer protection from Indonesia’s ban on ore exports.  Although some cuts in NPI during 2015 are possible, as those ore stocks deplete, nickel oversupply will continue, keeping prices below $7/lb ($2013) until 2018.

The subsequent need for 350kt of new supply by 2025, of which as much as 200kt may have to come from the “west”, will then push prices up to a long-term price of $10/lb ($2013).

What's included?

This report includes 11 file(s)

  • Global nickel long-term outlook Q4 2013 PDF - 839.81 KB 11 Pages, 5 Tables, 16 Figures
  • Economics Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 397.08 KB
  • Demand main changes nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 118.00 KB
  • Demand analysis nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 1.71 MB
  • Supply main changes nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 140.50 KB
  • Production rankings nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 39.00 KB
  • Mine analysis nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 685.00 KB
  • Smelter analysis nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 267.00 KB
  • Refinery analysis nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 762.50 KB
  • Market balance and prices nickel LTO Q4 2013.xls XLS - 326.50 KB
  • Slidepack nickel LTO Q4 2013.pdf PDF - 468.41 KB


As global demand weakens and commodity prices fall, we're seeing a challenging environment in the metals and mining industry. Mining companies are increasingly coming under pressure to reduce operating costs, causing many to shift their strategic planning, delay new investments and look to long-term future growth.

This Nickel Long Term Outlook report provides a detailed breakdown of global supply and demand balances in this market, as well as price forecasts.

Mining companies, investment banks and investors can use this report to understand the future direction of the ferrous and base metals market. It will also help you assess the impact of key industry issues and events on market balances and pricing.

From acquisitions to investments, Wood Mackenzie helps you plan, forecast and benchmark in the metals markets. Our proprietary database and analyst expertise combines robust production, consumption and pricing data with detailed analysis to identify market opportunities.

We give you a holistic view of the ferrous and base metals markets so you have the confidence to make strategic decisions.

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Africa
    • Asia
      • Chinese nickel ore stocks
      • Indonesian NPI smelter projects
    • Europe
    • Latin America and the Caribbean
    • North America
    • Oceania
  • Demand
  • Supply-demand balances

In this report there are 21 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Supply
    • Near-term changes in mine production capability (kt)
    • Near-term changes in refined production capability
    • Mined nickel production capability by country
    • Refined nickel production capability by country
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 3
  • Demand
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Growth in global/regional nickel consumption to 2030
    • Taiwanese imports of CR stainless
    • Vietnamese imports of HR and CR stainless
    • Japan - the declining use of nickel in stainless (kt)
    • Top ten Chinese stainless companies (production melt basis, kt) ranked on 2015
    • Tsingshan stainless melt production by plant
    • Chinese apparent stainless demand (product basis) and growth in net exports
    • Stainless melt production and primary nickel use changes in Germany and Finland
    • US/Mexican imports of stainless HRC from Italy/Germany (Outokumpu)
    • Commercial aircraft orders and deliveries
    • Global nickel consumption by first use
    • Demand: Image 11
  • Supply-demand balances
    • LME nickel stocks and cancelled warrants
    • Global metal balances and nickel price ($2013)
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