Commodity market report
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68 Pages

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2014


Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2014

Report summary

The spring Long Term Outlook reflects the continuing impact of unrest and project delays in several key producing nations balanced against steady growth in US production. The crucial source of growth in OPEC productive capacity, Iraq, continues to underperform.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 1.38 MB 68 Pages, 21 Tables, 44 Figures
  • May 2014 LTO Data.xls XLS - 219.50 KB

Description

The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. Recent global changes in supply and demand have deeply impacted the industry, causing ongoing uncertainties and a murky outlook, with long-term fundamentals guiding industry performance.

This Oil Markets Long Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand. It also gives an overview of geopolitical factors that play a role in Wood Mackenzie's price outlook.

Oil sector participants can use this report to understand the key factors affecting oil prices. It also gives you a good understanding of long-term strategy and investment decisions by industry players and governments in all parts of the oil and gas value chain.

Wood Mackenzie offers an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends in the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil-producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments. Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • To 2020
    • Upward price risk - supply uncertainty continues
    • Downward price risk
    • 2020-2030
    • Long term oil demand risk
    • The marginal cost of new supply provides a floor for prices
    • Brent - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) differential
      • Growing supply of US light crude
      • Chart 7: Growing supply of domestic light crude is being processed in US refineries
      • Refining demand for light crude oil
      • Crude oil transportation infrastructure
      • Chart 8: Rail off-loading capacity at refineries and third party terminals
    • Brent - Dubai differential
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
      • OPEC
      • Non-OPEC
    • Political Assumptions for the Demand Forecast
  • Supply
    • Non-OPEC
      • Table 6: Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
    • Latin America
    • Europe
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Asia and Oceania
    • Africa
    • Middle East
    • OPEC Supply Capacity Outlook
    • Unconventionals
    • Processing gains
  • Demand
    • North America
      • United States
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
    • Asia
      • China
      • Post-Fukushima Oil-burn for Power
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Latin America
    • Middle East
    • Africa
    • Feedstock Demand from the Petrochemical sector
    • Bunkers – 2015 shift, LNG, and scrubbing technology
    • Auto Fuel Efficiency Improvements through Use of Lightweight Materials
  • Economic outlook

In this report there are 65 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Table 1: Summary Data for Key Forecasts in the Long Term Outlook
  • Prices
    • Chart 1: OPEC Spare Capacity and its Proportion of World Oil Demand
    • Chart 2: Brent and WTI History and Forecast to 2030 (Real and Nominal)
    • Chart 3: OPEC Crude Oil Capacity Forecast by Country
    • Chart 4: US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven*
    • Chart 5: Other new development volumes by breakeven*
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Table 3: Brent, WTI & Dubai Price Outlook to 2030 (Nominal and Real)
    • Chart 6: Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
    • Prices: Image 7
    • Prices: Image 8
    • Chart 9: Value of light sweet crude in Houston relative to Brent
    • Chart 10: Growing US light crude in Gulf Coast crude slate
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
    • Chart 11: Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
    • Map 1: Assessment of average May 2014 supply losses
    • Table 4: Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
    • Chart 12: Non OPEC regional production
    • Chart 13: Change to non-OPEC regional supply since November 2013
    • Table 5: North America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Supply: Table 3
    • Chart 14: North America liquids production outlook
    • Map 2: Regional US and Canadian liquid production for 2014, 2020 and 2030
    • Table 7: Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Chart 15: Brazil production outlook – pre-salt volumes vital to long term growth
    • Table 8: Europe production outlook (million b/d)
    • Table 9: Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
    • Table 10: Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
    • Table 11: Africa production outlook (million b/d)
    • Table 12: Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
    • Table 13: Non-OPEC oil supply to 2030
    • Chart 16: OPEC production capacity
    • Chart 17: Change to OPEC supply since November 2013
    • Table 14: OPEC Oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
    • Map 3: Libyan infrastructure and current disruptions to production
    • Chart 18: Chart showing forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan, and revisions since November 2013
    • Table 15: Unconventionals Production to 2030 ('000 b/d)
    • Chart 19: Unconventionals Outlook to 2030 ('000 b/d)
  • Demand
    • Chart 22: Global Oil Demand by Country/Region, in million b/d (2000-2030)
    • Chart 23: Global Oil Demand by Country/Region Indexed to 2013
    • Table 16: World Oil Demand (million b/d)
    • Chart 22: US Oil Demand by Major Product, 2000-2030 (in million b/d)
    • Chart 23: Change in US Oil Demand by Sector, 2013-2020 and 2020-2030 (in 000 b/d)
    • Table 17: North American Oil Demand by Major Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Demand: Image 6
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Chart 27: Change in Asian Oil Demand by Sector, 2013-2020 and 2020-2030
    • Chart 28: World Passenger Car Population Increase, 2013-2030 (million units)
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Chart 29: Change in China's Diesel/Gasoil Demand, 2005-2030 (in 000 b/d)
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Chart 30: Japanese Nuclear Capacity, 2000-2030
    • Chart 31: Japanese Oil Burns in Power, 2000-2030
    • Chart 32: Russian/Caspian Oil Demand by Major Product, 2000-2030 (in million b/d)
    • Chart 33: Change in Russian/Caspian Oil Demand by Sector, 2013-2020 and 2020-2030 (in 000 b/d)
    • Demand: Image 15
    • Chart 35: Change in Latin America Oil Demand by Sector, 2013-2020 and 2020-2030 (in 000 b/d)
    • Demand: Image 17
    • Demand: Image 18
    • Demand: Image 19
    • Demand: Image 20
    • Chart 40: Global Oil Demand for Petrochemical Feedstock, 2005-2030 (million b/d)
    • Chart 41: Cumulative Change in Petrochemical Feedstock Demand, 2014-2030 (million b/d)
  • Economic outlook
    • Table 21: Real GDP Growth: Q1 2014 forecast
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