Commodity market report

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

The May 2015 Macro Oils long term outlook shows price recovery in the years to 2020 when we forecast Brent at an annual average of $90.00 per barrel in real terms. Our view is based on the expectation for continued oil demand growth although at a slower pace after 2020.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 3.36 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Economic outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 85 images and tables including:

Images

  • Year-on-year change in global demand and supply for 2014-2016 (in million b/d)
  • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
  • Unplanned supply outages
  • Total US liquids production and rig count
  • Monthly US tight oil production forecast
  • Growing supply of crude oil from Canada
  • Non-OPEC regional production
  • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since H2 2014
  • North America liquids production outlook
  • OPEC production capacity
  • Change to OPEC regional supply since H2 2014
  • Libya production: forecast lowered from H2 2014 outlook
  • Forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan and revisions since H2 2013
  • Global Oil Demand in million b/d
  • Annual growth in GDP and oil demand
  • Change in global oil demand by sector, million b/d
  • Change in global oil demand by product, million b/d
  • Change in global oil demand by region, million b/d
  • Oil intensity by region, (bbl/$000s GDP in 2005 prices)
  • Oil demand in million b/d, 2014 - 2035
  • North American oil demand, 2000-2035
  • Change in oil demand by sector,2010-2035(in kb/d)
  • European oil demand by sector, 2000-2035
  • European oil demand by region, 2000-2035
  • Change in European oil demand by sector, 2010 - 2035
  • Asia oil demand, 2000 - 2035
  • Change in oil demand by sector,2010-2035
  • Increase in global car stock, 2014 - 2035
  • China annual car sales by vehicle type
  • Middle East oil demand, 2000-2035
  • Middle East oil demand by sector,2000-2035
  • Middle East demand for road fuel, 2000-2035
  • Middle East car stock, 2000-2035
  • Russia/Caspian oil demand, 2000-2035
  • Oil demand by sector
  • Passenger car stock, 2000-2035
  • Road fuel demand by country, 2000-2035
  • Latin America oil demand, 2000-2035
  • Oil demand growth by sector (in kb/d)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa oil demand, 2000-2035
  • North Africa oil demand, 2000-2035
  • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven band ($ Brent)*
  • Total US tight oil forecast by key play, including production from existing wells
  • Other new development volumes by breakeven band*
  • Pre-sanction offshore project delays
  • OPEC Spare capacity and its proportion of World oil demand
  • OPEC spare capacity Million b/d - Comparison of forecasts
  • Brent and WTI history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
  • Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
  • Growing supply of domestic light crude is being processed in US refineries
  • Rising US crude oil exports
  • Exports of minimally processed condensate
  • Prices: Image 13
  • Value of light sweet crude in Houston
  • Growing US light crude in Gulf Coast
  • Outlook for WTI-WCS
  • Disposition of WCS to refining markets
  • Disposition of WCS by mode of transport
  • Brazil liquids production outlook: significant downward revision from H2 2014 outlook
  • Impact of sanctions shifts long term focus of Russian production
  • Map showing some WCS routes to market
  • Unconvetionals outlook

Tables

  • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
  • North America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
  • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
  • Global Oil Demand, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Europe Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Asian Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • China Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Real GDP Growth: Q2 2015 forecast
  • Supply and demand balance
  • Brent and WTI history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
  • Prices: Table 3
  • Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
  • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
  • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
  • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
  • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
  • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
  • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
  • North America Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Start-up assumptions for key pipelines

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