Commodity market report
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81 Pages

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2015

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

The May 2015 Macro Oils long-term outlook shows price recovery in the years to 2020 when we forecast Brent at an annual average of $90.00 per barrel in real terms. Our view is based on the expectation for continued oil demand growth although at a slower pace after 2020.  

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2015 PDF - 3.36 MB 81 Pages, 23 Tables, 62 Figures
  • H1 2015 May 2015 LTO Data.xls XLS - 259.00 KB


The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. Recent global changes in supply and demand have deeply impacted the industry, causing ongoing uncertainties and a murky outlook, with long-term fundamentals guiding industry performance.

This Oil Markets Long Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand. It also gives an overview of geopolitical factors that play a role in Wood Mackenzie's price outlook.

Oil sector participants can use this report to understand the key factors affecting oil prices. It also gives you a good understanding of long-term strategy and investment decisions by industry players and governments in all parts of the oil and gas value chain.

Wood Mackenzie offers an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends in the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil-producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments. Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • OPEC
    • 2017- 2035
    • Defining the low end of the price forecast
      • Marginal cost of new supply
    • Brent - Dubai differential
    • Brent - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) differential
      • Background
      • Growing supply of US light crude
      • Emergence of growing oil exports
      • Refining demand for light crude oil
      • Crude oil transportation infrastructure
      • Uncertainties
      • Assumptions
    • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential
      • Transport
      • Outlook for the WTI - WCS differential
      • Disposition of WCS
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
      • OPEC
      • Non-OPEC
    • Political Assumptions for the Demand Forecast
  • Supply
    • Non-OPEC
      • Latin America
      • Europe
      • Russia and the Caspian
      • Asia and Oceania
      • Africa
      • Middle East
    • OPEC supply capacity outlook
      • Unconventionals
        • Biofuels
  • Demand
    • Global Demand
    • North America
      • United States
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Middle East
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Latin America
    • Africa
    • Outlook for the Marine Bunker Market
    • The Impact of Low Oil Prices on Oil Demand
  • Economic outlook
    • GDP Growth

In this report there are 85 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Prices
    • Year-on-year change in global demand and supply for 2014-2016 (in million b/d)
    • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven band ($ Brent)*
    • Total US tight oil forecast by key play, including production from existing wells
    • Other new development volumes by breakeven band*
    • Pre-sanction offshore project delays
    • OPEC Spare capacity and its proportion of World oil demand
    • OPEC spare capacity Million b/d - Comparison of forecasts
    • Brent and WTI history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
    • Supply and demand balance
    • Brent and WTI history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
    • Prices: Table 3
    • Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
    • Growing supply of domestic light crude is being processed in US refineries
    • Rising US crude oil exports
    • Exports of minimally processed condensate
    • Prices: Image 13
    • Value of light sweet crude in Houston
    • Growing US light crude in Gulf Coast
    • Growing supply of crude oil from Canada
    • Start-up assumptions for key pipelines
    • Map showing some WCS routes to market
    • Outlook for WTI-WCS
    • Disposition of WCS to refining markets
    • Disposition of WCS by mode of transport
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
    • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
    • Unplanned supply outages
    • Total US liquids production and rig count
    • Monthly US tight oil production forecast
    • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
    • Non-OPEC regional production
    • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since H2 2014
    • North America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
    • North America liquids production outlook
    • Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Brazil liquids production outlook: significant downward revision from H2 2014 outlook
    • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
    • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
    • Impact of sanctions shifts long term focus of Russian production
    • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
    • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
    • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
    • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
    • OPEC production capacity
    • Change to OPEC regional supply since H2 2014
    • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
    • Libya production: forecast lowered from H2 2014 outlook
    • Forecast for Iraq/Kurdistan and revisions since H2 2013
    • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
    • Unconvetionals outlook
  • Demand
    • Global Oil Demand in million b/d
    • Annual growth in GDP and oil demand
    • Change in global oil demand by sector, million b/d
    • Change in global oil demand by product, million b/d
    • Change in global oil demand by region, million b/d
    • Oil intensity by region, (bbl/$000s GDP in 2005 prices)
    • Oil demand in million b/d, 2014 - 2035
    • Global Oil Demand, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • North American oil demand, 2000-2035
    • Change in oil demand by sector,2010-2035(in kb/d)
    • North America Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • European oil demand by sector, 2000-2035
    • European oil demand by region, 2000-2035
    • Change in European oil demand by sector, 2010 - 2035
    • Europe Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • Asia oil demand, 2000 - 2035
    • Change in oil demand by sector,2010-2035
    • Increase in global car stock, 2014 - 2035
    • Asian Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • China Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • China annual car sales by vehicle type
    • Middle East oil demand, 2000-2035
    • Middle East oil demand by sector,2000-2035
    • Middle East demand for road fuel, 2000-2035
    • Middle East car stock, 2000-2035
    • Russia/Caspian oil demand, 2000-2035
    • Oil demand by sector
    • Passenger car stock, 2000-2035
    • Road fuel demand by country, 2000-2035
    • Latin America oil demand, 2000-2035
    • Oil demand growth by sector (in kb/d)
    • Sub-Saharan Africa oil demand, 2000-2035
    • North Africa oil demand, 2000-2035
  • Economic outlook
    • Real GDP Growth: Q2 2015 forecast
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