Commodity market report
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72 Pages

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016

Report summary

The May 2016 Macro Oils long term oil market report presents our forecast for oil supply, demand and prices to 2035. Our analysis continues to show a tightening in the supply and demand balance through 2020 followed by another shift in the next decade. The new report on the long term oil market and fundamentals presents our forecast for Brent, WTI, LLS and WCS. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016 PDF - 1.04 MB 72 Pages, 23 Tables, 53 Figures
  • H1 2016 May 2016 LTO Data.xls XLS - 320.00 KB


The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. Recent global changes in supply and demand have deeply impacted the industry, causing ongoing uncertainties and a murky outlook, with long-term fundamentals guiding industry performance.

This Oil Markets Long Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand. It also gives an overview of geopolitical factors that play a role in Wood Mackenzie's price outlook.

Oil sector participants can use this report to understand the key factors affecting oil prices. It also gives you a good understanding of long-term strategy and investment decisions by industry players and governments in all parts of the oil and gas value chain.

Wood Mackenzie offers an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends in the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil-producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments. Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Political Assumptions for the Supply Forecast
      • OPEC
      • Non-OPEC
    • Political Assumptions for the Demand Forecast
  • Supply
    • Reduction in 2016-2017 global capital investment from Q4 2014 to Q2 2016
    • Latin America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Demand
    • Global Demand
      • United States
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
    • Asia
      • World car population increase, 2015-2035
    • Middle East
    • Russia and the Caspian
    • Latin America
      • Brazil
      • Argentina
    • Africa
    • The outlook for electric vehicles
    • Recent efforts to curb fuel subsidies
    • The impact of sulfur regulations on the marine bunker market
  • Economic outlook

In this report there are 76 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Prices
    • Growing supply gap to 2025
    • Cost of pre-FID projects and new drilling required to fill gap
    • Prices: Table 1
    • Prices: Table 2
    • Prices: Table 3
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
    • Total US liquids production and rig count
    • US oil production forecast
    • Supply: Image 3
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Shift in production from pre-FID projects
    • Key country changes to pre-FID projects
    • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
    • Non-OPEC regional production
    • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since H2 2015
    • North America production outlook (million b/d)
    • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
    • US liquids supply
    • Canada liquids supply
    • Supply: Table 4
    • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
    • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
    • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
    • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
    • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
    • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
    • OPEC production capacity
    • Change to OPEC regional supply since H2 2015
    • Supply: Table 11
    • Iran oil supply outlook
    • Iraq oil supply changes over time
    • Libya production: forecast lowered from previous outlooks
    • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
    • Unconventionals outlook
    • Ethanol outlook (million b/d)
    • Biodiesel outlook (million b/d)
  • Demand
    • Global oil demand (including biofuels)
    • Cumulative revision since H2 2015 demand forecast
    • Global oil demand by region
    • Growth in global oil demand by region, 5 yr intervals
    • Growth in global oil demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
    • Oil demand in transport: OECD vs non-OECD
    • Demand: Table 1
    • US oil demand by sector
    • Change in US demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
    • Mexican oil demand by sector
    • Change in Mexican demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Oil demand by region, 2000 - 2035
    • Annual change by region, 2000 - 2035
    • Demand by sector, 2015 - 2035
    • Change in demand by sector, 2015 - 2035
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Asian oil demand, 2015-2035 Asian oil demand growth by sector, 5-yr intervals
    • Demand: Image 16
    • Demand: Image 17
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Middle East oil demand by sector
    • Change in Middle East oil demand, 5 yr intervals
    • Russia/Caspian oil demand by sector
    • Change in Russia/Caspian oil demand, 5 yr intervals
    • Latin American oil demand by sector
    • Change in Latin American demand, 5-yr intervals
    • Latin America: oil demand in the transport sector
    • Latin America: oil demand in the power sector
    • African oil demand by sector
    • Change in African oil demand, 5 yr intervals
    • Annual sales of EVs/PHEVs through 2015
    • Annual sales of EVs/PHEVs through 2035
    • Global marine fuels, 2010 - 2035*
    • % share of global marine fuels
  • Economic outlook
    • Regional contribution to global GDP growth
    • Revision in global GDP since H2 2015 outlook
    • Real GDP Growth: Q1 2016 forecast
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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