Commodity market report

Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016

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Report summary

The May 2016 Macro Oils long term oil market report presents our forecast for oil supply demand and prices to 2035. Our analysis continues to show a tightening in the supply and demand balance through 2020 followed by another shift in the next decade. The new report on the long term oil market and fundamentals presents our forecast for Brent WTI LLS and WCS.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    H1 2016 May 2016 LTO Data.xls

    XLS 320.00 KB

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016

    PDF 1.04 MB

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H1 2016

    ZIP 1.18 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 95.51 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 247.39 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 97.13 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 425.37 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 371.62 KB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 110.16 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Economic outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 76 images and tables including:

Images

  • Growing supply gap to 2025
  • Cost of pre-FID projects and new drilling required to fill gap
  • Total US liquids production and rig count
  • US oil production forecast
  • Regional contribution to global GDP growth
  • Revision in global GDP since H2 2015 outlook
  • Supply: Image 3
  • Shift in production from pre-FID projects
  • Key country changes to pre-FID projects
  • Global year-on-year change in supply and total production capacity
  • Non-OPEC regional production
  • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since H2 2015
  • US liquids supply
  • Canada liquids supply
  • OPEC production capacity
  • Change to OPEC regional supply since H2 2015
  • Iran oil supply outlook
  • Iraq oil supply changes over time
  • Libya production: forecast lowered from previous outlooks
  • Unconventionals outlook
  • Ethanol outlook (million b/d)
  • Biodiesel outlook (million b/d)
  • Global oil demand (including biofuels)
  • Cumulative revision since H2 2015 demand forecast
  • Global oil demand by region
  • Growth in global oil demand by region, 5 yr intervals
  • Growth in global oil demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
  • Oil demand in transport: OECD vs non-OECD
  • Oil demand by region, 2000 - 2035
  • Annual change by region, 2000 - 2035
  • Demand by sector, 2015 - 2035
  • Change in demand by sector, 2015 - 2035
  • Asian oil demand, 2015-2035 Asian oil demand growth by sector, 5-yr intervals
  • Demand: Image 16
  • Middle East oil demand by sector
  • Change in Middle East oil demand, 5 yr intervals
  • Russia/Caspian oil demand by sector
  • Change in Russia/Caspian oil demand, 5 yr intervals
  • Latin American oil demand by sector
  • Change in Latin American demand, 5-yr intervals
  • African oil demand by sector
  • Change in African oil demand, 5 yr intervals
  • Annual sales of EVs/PHEVs through 2015
  • Annual sales of EVs/PHEVs through 2035
  • Global marine fuels, 2010 - 2035*
  • % share of global marine fuels
  • US oil demand by sector
  • Change in US demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
  • Mexican oil demand by sector
  • Change in Mexican demand by sector, 5 yr intervals
  • Demand: Image 17
  • Latin America: oil demand in the transport sector
  • Latin America: oil demand in the power sector

Tables

  • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Table 2
  • Prices: Table 3
  • Real GDP Growth: Q1 2016 forecast
  • Supply: Table 1
  • North America production outlook (million b/d)
  • Breakout of US and Canada liquids supply (million b/d)
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Europe production outlook (million b/d)
  • Russia and the Caspian production outlook (million b/d)
  • Asia and Oceania production outlook (million b/d)
  • Africa production outlook (million b/d)
  • Middle East production outlook (million b/d)
  • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6

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