Commodity market report

Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

For this long term update we have incorporated the short term supply and demand forecast from the end November monthly update. For the period after 2016 we use the supply and demand forecast we completed in November before the 27 November 2014 OPEC meeting.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    December 2014 LTO Data.xls

    XLS 239.00 KB

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 1.20 MB

  • Document

    Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 1.28 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 88.34 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 844.48 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 184.66 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 211.20 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Supply
  • Demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 57 images and tables including:

Images

  • OPEC Spare capacity and its proportion of World oil demand
  • Brent and WTI history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
  • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven* ($WTI)
  • Conventional new development volumes by breakeven* (Brent)
  • Forecast of WTI - WCS differential
  • Figure illustrating methodology for WTI-WCS
  • Annual global production capacity change between the May 2014 outlook and November 2014
  • Year-on-year non-OPEC growth
  • Global demand (million b/d)
  • Growth in global oil demand, 5-yr interval, region
  • World Car Population Increase, 2014 – 2035
  • Revisions to Global Demand since the May Long-Term Outlook, by region
  • Brent-WTI in 2014 low crude oil price environment
  • Map showing selected transportation routes for US light tight oil
  • Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
  • Growing supply of domestic light crude is being processed in US refineries
  • Rail off-loading capacity at refineries and third party terminals
  • Value of light sweet crude in Houston relative to Brent
  • Growing US light crude in Gulf Coast crude slate
  • Growing heavy crude oil supply from Canada*
  • Map showing some WCS routes to market
  • Illustration of refining value curves
  • Refining value of WCS and coking capacity
  • Disposition of WCS to refining markets
  • Disposition of WCS by mode of transport
  • Iraq production outlook
  • OPEC production capacity
  • Change to OPEC supply since May 2014
  • North American oil demand by major country
  • Change in North American demand by sector (kbd)
  • European oil demand by major country
  • Change in European oil demand by sector (kbd)
  • Asian oil demand in major countries
  • Change in Asian oil demand by sector (kbd)
  • Russia and Caspian oil demand in major countries
  • Russia/Caspian change in oil demand by sector (kbd)
  • Latin American oil demand in major countries
  • Change in Latin American demand by sector (kbd)
  • Middle East oil demand in major countries
  • Change in Middle East oil demand by sector (kbd)
  • African oil demand in major countries
  • Change in African oil demand by sector (kbd)

Tables

  • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
  • World Oil Demand (million b/d)
  • Supply and demand balance
  • Brent, WTI and Dubai price outlook to 2035 (nominal and real)
  • US and Canada liquids production ('000 b/d)
  • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
  • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
  • Unconventionals Production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
  • North American Oil Demand by Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • European Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Asian Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • China Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
  • Real GDP Growth: Q4 2014 forecast

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