Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2015 Report

Commodity Market Report 20 November 2015

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Report summary

The Macro Oils update to our May 2015 long-term oil outlook to 2035 provides forecasts for OPEC and non-OPEC supply, world oil demand and an oil price forecast for Brent.

Executive summary
Prices
- OPEC in the market
- 2020-2035
- The marginal cost of new supply
- Risks to the oil price outlook
- Brent – Dubai differential
- Brent - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) differential
  - Supply of US light crude
  - US oil exports
  - Refining demand for light crude oil
  - Crude oil transportation infrastructure
  - Uncertainties
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential
  - Supply of heavy Canadian crude
  - Market access
  - Uncertainties
Risks and uncertainties
- Political assumptions for the supply forecast
  - OPEC
  - Non-OPEC
- Political Assumptions for the Demand Forecast
Supply
- Impact of changes to our outlook since May 2015
  - Key changes to our Non OPEC outlook since May 2015:
  - Key changes to our OPEC outlook since May 2015:
- Unconventionals
  - Biofuels
Demand
- Global demand
- North America
- - North American Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
- Europe
- Asia
- Russia and Caspian
- Latin America
- Africa
Economic outlook

Tables and charts

This report includes 55 images and tables including:

Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
Real GDP Growth: Q4 2015 forecast
US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven band ($ Brent)*

Conventional pre-FID development volumes by breakeven band*
OPEC spare capacity and its proportion of world oil demand
OPEC spare capacity comparison of forecasts
Supply and demand balance
Brent history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
Outlook for WTI-WCS
Annual global production capacity change between the May 2015 and November 2015 outlook
Non OPEC regional production
Change to non-OPEC regional supply since May 2015
Year-on-year non-OPEC growth
Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
Global demand growth
Cumulative revisions since the H1 2015 outlook
Global oil demand
Average annual change in global oil demand
Oil displaced by natural gas in transport
Electric vehicles as % of new light vehicle sales
Total change in global oil demand by sector between 2014-2035
Global Oil Demand By Region, including biofuels (million b/d)
North American oil demand by product
Change in North American oil demand by product
European Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
European oil demand by sector
Change in European oil demand by product
Asian Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
China Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
Russia & Caspian oil demand by sector
Change in Russian & Caspian oil demand by sector
Latin American demand by product
Change in Latin American demand by product
Middle East oil demand by product
Change in Middle Eastern oil demand by product
Africa oil demand by product
Change in African oil demand by product
US oil supply outlook
Year-over-year change in US oil supply
Map showing selected pipelines ferrying light crude
Outlook for Canada oil supply
Growing supply of crude oil from Canada
Map showing some WCS routes to market
US and Canada liquids production ('000 b/d)
US liquids supply
Canada liquids supply
Brazil production outlook
Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
Iraq southern production split by blend
OPEC production capacity
Change to OPEC capacity since May 2015
OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
Demand: Table 2