Commodity market report
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47 Pages

Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2015

Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

The Macro Oils update to our May 2015 long-term oil outlook to 2035 provides forecasts for OPEC and non-OPEC supply, world oil demand and an oil price forecast for Brent.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global macro oils long-term outlook H2 2015 PDF - 1.03 MB 47 Pages, 14 Tables, 41 Figures
  • H2 2015 November 2015 LTO Data.xls XLS - 283.00 KB


The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. Recent global changes in supply and demand have deeply impacted the industry, causing ongoing uncertainties and a murky outlook, with long-term fundamentals guiding industry performance.

This Oil Markets Long Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand. It also gives an overview of geopolitical factors that play a role in Wood Mackenzie's price outlook.

Oil sector participants can use this report to understand the key factors affecting oil prices. It also gives you a good understanding of long-term strategy and investment decisions by industry players and governments in all parts of the oil and gas value chain.

Wood Mackenzie offers an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends in the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil-producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments. Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • OPEC in the market
    • 2020-2035
    • The marginal cost of new supply
    • Risks to the oil price outlook
    • Brent – Dubai differential
    • Brent - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) differential
      • Supply of US light crude
      • US oil exports
      • Refining demand for light crude oil
      • Crude oil transportation infrastructure
      • Uncertainties
    • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Western Canadian Select (WCS) differential
      • Supply of heavy Canadian crude
      • Market access
      • Uncertainties
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Political assumptions for the supply forecast
      • OPEC
      • Non-OPEC
    • Political Assumptions for the Demand Forecast
  • Supply
    • Impact of changes to our outlook since May 2015
      • Key changes to our Non OPEC outlook since May 2015:
      • Key changes to our OPEC outlook since May 2015:
    • Unconventionals
      • Biofuels
  • Demand
    • Global demand
    • North America
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • Russia and Caspian
    • Latin America
    • Africa
  • Economic outlook

In this report there are 55 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Summary Data for key forecasts in the long-term outlook
  • Prices
    • US tight oil new development volumes by breakeven band ($ Brent)*
    • Conventional pre-FID development volumes by breakeven band*
    • OPEC spare capacity and its proportion of world oil demand
    • OPEC spare capacity comparison of forecasts
    • Supply and demand balance
    • Brent history and forecast to 2035 (real and nominal)
    • Forecast of Brent-WTI differential
    • US oil supply outlook
    • Year-over-year change in US oil supply
    • Map showing selected pipelines ferrying light crude
    • Outlook for WTI-WCS
    • Outlook for Canada oil supply
    • Growing supply of crude oil from Canada
    • Map showing some WCS routes to market
  • Risks and uncertainties
  • Supply
    • Annual global production capacity change between the May 2015 and November 2015 outlook
    • Non OPEC regional production
    • Change to non-OPEC regional supply since May 2015
    • Year-on-year non-OPEC growth
    • Global capacity outlook (million b/d)
    • US and Canada liquids production ('000 b/d)
    • US liquids supply
    • Canada liquids supply
    • Brazil production outlook
    • Non-OPEC oil supply to 2035
    • Iraq southern production split by blend
    • OPEC production capacity
    • Change to OPEC capacity since May 2015
    • OPEC oil/NGL capacity (million b/d)
    • Unconventionals production to 2035 ('000 b/d)
  • Demand
    • Global demand growth
    • Cumulative revisions since the H1 2015 outlook
    • Global oil demand
    • Average annual change in global oil demand
    • Oil displaced by natural gas in transport
    • Electric vehicles as % of new light vehicle sales
    • Total change in global oil demand by sector between 2014-2035
    • Global Oil Demand By Region, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • North American oil demand by product
    • Change in North American oil demand by product
    • Demand: Table 2
    • European Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • European oil demand by sector
    • Change in European oil demand by product
    • Asian Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • China Oil Demand By Product, including biofuels (million b/d)
    • Russia & Caspian oil demand by sector
    • Change in Russian & Caspian oil demand by sector
    • Latin American demand by product
    • Change in Latin American demand by product
    • Middle East oil demand by product
    • Change in Middle Eastern oil demand by product
    • Africa oil demand by product
    • Change in African oil demand by product
  • Economic outlook
    • Real GDP Growth: Q4 2015 forecast
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