After OPEC’s 28 September 2016 Algiers meeting, the oil market began anticipating an agreement for an output cut and Brent rose as high as $53 per barrel in early October. The apparent lack of progress towards a production deal weakened oil prices in late October. The next turning point is the 30 November 2016 full OPEC meeting in Vienna. The analysis in this Macro Oils Monthly Update assumes OPEC does not implement a significant production cut. We have revised the oil demand outlook upward primarily because of historical revisions. Both non-OPEC and OPEC supply have been revised upward for 2016-2018 as production has outperformed expectations. The short term supply and demand balance no longer shows an implied stockdraw for Q4 2016.