Commodity market report
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44 Pages

Global macro oils short-term outlook January 2016

Global macro oils short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

Oil prices have plunged since the new year, hitting $26 per barrel for Brent, on a wave of concerns about economic growth and oversupply. Our new Monthly Update shows world oil demand growth is actually holding up and we are projecting a 1.3 million b/d increase for 2016. However, supply from OPEC continues to increase this year with the lifting of sanctions against Iran and expected moderate gains in Iraq. As a result of these adjustments, the supply and demand balance for 2016 is looser and while the relentless oversupply ends in H2 2016, the drawdown in stocks is less than in our previous view. In this in depth Monthly report on the global oil market, we discuss trends in world oil demand, OPEC and non-OPEC supply along with our price forecast through 2017.  

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Global macro oils short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 837.28 KB 44 Pages, 14 Tables, 29 Figures
  • 29 January 2016 data.xls XLS - 928.50 KB
  • 29 January 2016 prices.xls XLS - 267.50 KB


The oil industry is one of the largest in the world, with high revenues and costs, and major investments that have long lead times. The short-term outlook captures key industry developments, the impact of events and geopolitical influences on oil prices.

This Oil Markets Short Term Outlook report provides detailed fundamentals of supply and demand.

Crude oil investors can use this report to make short-term tactical decisions and assess the behaviour of industry players and governments.

Wood Mackenzie gives you an informed, independent view on oil prices and the key drivers and trends impacting the oil market. Our highly experienced analysts are based in the key oil producing and consuming regions they analyse, providing detailed field-by-field data and demand forecasts driven by country and sector developments.

Our trusted insight helps you deliver successful growth strategies.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Downside risk to oil price forecast
    • Brent-WTI differential
  • Supply
    • Highlights
    • OPEC supply
    • Non-OPEC supply
      • North America
      • Latin America
      • Europe
      • Russia and Caspian
      • Africa
      • Asia and Oceania
      • Middle East
  • Demand
    • North America
      • United States
      • Mexico
      • Europe
    • Asia
      • Japan
      • China
      • India
    • Russia and the Caspian
      • Russia
    • Middle East
      • Saudi Arabia
      • Iran
    • Africa
    • Latin America
  • Economic outlook

In this report there are 43 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Forecast for OPEC crude oil production by quarter through 2017 (million b/d)
    • Year-on-year change in global demand and supply for 2014-2017 (in million b/d)
    • Wood Mackenzie's global supply-demand balance (million b/d)
    • Implied global stock change based on supply-demand balance
    • Brent price forecast with downside risk range (US$/bbl)
    • Quarterly historic and forecast price outlook: Brent, WTI and Dubai
    • Brent-WTI forecast and actual
    • Prices: Table 4
  • Supply
    • Global year-on-year change in supply
    • Non-OPEC monthly production outlook
    • OPEC monthly production outlook
    • Production forecast 2015-2017
    • Iran crude oil production
    • Libya crude oil production
    • Forecast for OPEC crude oil production by quarter through 2017 (million b/d)
    • Latest changes to 2016 forecast by country since previous monthly update (‘000 b/d)
    • Regional changes to our non-OPEC production forecast since previous monthly update
    • USA and Canada supply (million b/d)
    • US liquids production and rig count
    • Canada liquids production and rig count
    • Non-OPEC liquids supply (million b/d)
  • Demand
    • Year-on-year change in world oil demand (quarterly, in million b/d)
    • Annual Change in Regional/Country Oil Demand (000 b/d, 2015-2017)
    • World Oil Demand (million b/d)
    • Year-on-year change in US demand (million b/d, Q1/2014-Q4/2017)
    • Year-on-year growth in vehicle miles travelled
    • US retail gasoline prices ($/gallon)
    • Heating Degree Days in the US Northeast (New England)
    • North American Demand by Major Product 2013-2017 (million b/d)
    • Year on year change in OECD Europe demand (million b/d, Q1/2010-Q4/2017)
    • UK retail gasoline prices, January 2014 to December 2015
    • European Oil Demand by Major Product 2013-2017
    • Consumption and its contribution to GDP in China
    • Monthly car sales in China
    • Year-on-Year change in Indian demand ('000 b/d, Q1/2014 – Q4/2017)
    • Trends in Indian product demand ('000 b/d, 2015 to 2017)
    • Asia Pacific Oil Demand by Major Product 2013-2017
    • Year-on-year change in oil demand in the Russia and Caspian region
    • Year-on-year change in oil demand in the Middle East
    • Fuel prices for Power and Industry
    • Year-on-year change in oil demand in Africa
    • Oil Demand in Other Regions 2013-2017 (million b/d)
  • Economic outlook
    • Real GDP growth: Q1 2016 forecast
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