Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

R.T. Dukes

31 May 2018

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31 May 2018

Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

Report summary

The new Macro Oils Long-term Outlook includes our forecast of price, supply, and demand as well as a series of themes that address the complexity of the oil market to 2040. We summarise the key takeaways from each theme and interpret what it means for oil price. In broad terms, we address the following supply themes: OPEC and geopolitics The growth in US tight oil Non-OPEC supply On demand, tectonic shifts in the transport sector lead to a peak in oil demand in 2036. Robust growth in petrochemical demand is insufficient to counter the decline in gasoline. We asses the following themes: Mandated fuel efficiency improvements The rise of the electric vehicle The road to an autonomous future The resilience in petrochemical demand

Executive summary
- OPEC and geopolitics: a more uncertain world
  - US sanctions impact Iranian near-term supply; long-term capacity additions will be delayed
  - Production declines accelerate in Venezuela; recovery will depend on political change
- US tight oil: can it deliver strong growth?
  - Corporate strategy: seeking balance
  - Permian leads the charge
  - Other key plays provide stable base for Permian to grow
- Resilience of non-OPEC supply: new sources of growth mitigate declines
  - FID’s are on the rise
  - Projects are evolving
  - Higher cost supply is still required longer term
- Transport in transition: the road to an autonomous future
- Transport in transition: the rise of the electric vehicle
- Transport in transition: mandated efficiency improvements
- Petrochemicals: the resilience in feedstock demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

Volatile geopolitical dynamics add to global supply uncertainty
US total liquids production
Timeline of autonomous technology development
Global electric vehicle stock (excluding e-trucks)
Non-OPEC future sources of supply (pre-FID, YTF, reserves growth, contingent resources)

What's included

This report contains:

Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

ZIP 4.97 MB
Oil price supply and demand outlook to 2040.pdf

PDF 2.15 MB
Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2018 - Data download.xls

XLS 1.83 MB

Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2018 - Fiscal analysis summary.xls

XLS 296.00 KB
Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

PDF 1.05 MB
Executive summary

PDF 1.06 MB
International crude prices H1 2018.xls

XLS 3.79 MB