Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

R.T. Dukes

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31 May 2018

Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

Report summary

The new Macro Oils Long-term Outlook includes our forecast of price, supply, and demand as well as a series of themes that address the complexity of the oil market to 2040. We summarise the key takeaways from each theme and interpret what it means for oil price. In broad terms, we address the following supply themes: OPEC and geopolitics  The growth in US tight oil  Non-OPEC supply    On demand, tectonic shifts in the transport sector lead to a peak in oil demand in 2036. Robust growth in petrochemical demand is insufficient to counter the decline in gasoline. We asses  the following themes: Mandated fuel efficiency improvements   The rise of the electric vehicle  The road to an autonomous future   The resilience in petrochemical demand 

Table of contents

    • OPEC and geopolitics: a more uncertain world
      • US sanctions impact Iranian near-term supply; long-term capacity additions will be delayed
      • Production declines accelerate in Venezuela; recovery will depend on political change
    • US tight oil: can it deliver strong growth?
      • Corporate strategy: seeking balance
      • Permian leads the charge
      • Other key plays provide stable base for Permian to grow
    • Resilience of non-OPEC supply: new sources of growth mitigate declines
      • FID’s are on the rise
      • Projects are evolving
      • Higher cost supply is still required longer term
    • Transport in transition: the road to an autonomous future
    • Transport in transition: the rise of the electric vehicle
    • Transport in transition: mandated efficiency improvements
    • Petrochemicals: the resilience in feedstock demand

Tables and charts

This report includes 5 images and tables including:

  • Volatile geopolitical dynamics add to global supply uncertainty
  • US total liquids production
  • Timeline of autonomous technology development
  • Global electric vehicle stock (excluding e-trucks)
  • Non-OPEC future sources of supply (pre-FID, YTF, reserves growth, contingent resources)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

    ZIP 4.97 MB

  • Document

    Oil price supply and demand outlook to 2040.pdf

    PDF 2.15 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2018 - Data download.xls

    XLS 1.83 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H1 2018 - Fiscal analysis summary.xls

    XLS 296.00 KB

  • Document

    Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2018: peak demand, supply resilience, and rising geopolitical tension

    PDF 1.05 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.06 MB

  • Document

    International crude prices H1 2018.xls

    XLS 3.79 MB