Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2019: Assessing risks and trends to 2040 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 May 2019

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Understand what you need to watch in the oil market out to 2040, including:

Why we think US supply will reach a higher peak next decade than previously expected
How the growth of electric vehicles will impact demand
What’s happening in Iran and Venezuela, and how increased political risk will affect supply
How does the market plan to fill the 15 million b/d supply gap we expect by 2025?

What’s changed since our last report?

We’ve revised the forecast for non-OPEC suppy upward significantly, with the largest revision to the US Lower 48, where tight oil continues to outperform. We’ve also revised up the peak in US Lower 48 crude oil production and made changes to our Brent oil price outlook.

This report comes with charts and datasets, including this one, which forecasts the number of electric vehicle sales by region out to 2040.

Rising electric vehicle sales will have an impact on oil demand

Electric vehicle sales will have an impact oil demand

Report summary

Our H1 2019 long-term view to 2040 shows a significant upward revision to non-OPEC supply and to global demand. But the adjustments to non-OPEC outpace those to demand. We have revised the Brent oil price forecast downward by $1 to $5 per barrel for 2021-2028. Longer-term, global liquids demand reaches a plateau in 2035-2040. Fuel efficiency gains and electrification curb demand for transport fuels primarily in the OECD and China, slowing demand growth. This long-term outlook concludes: • US supply reaches a higher peak next decade than previously expected. • Although demand has been adjusted higher, the impact from EVs and fuel efficiency is still large. • The market needs higher-cost conventional production to fill the ‘supply gap’ • OPEC capacity growth is crucial to meet demand, even as political risk ramps up.

Brent WTI and Cushing Infrastructure
Global Supply
- OPEC: long term capacity growth despite production cuts and Iran sanctions losses
- Capacity additions in Iran deferred as sanctions waivers end
- Iraq main focus for OPEC capacity additions, but risks emerging as Middle East tensions rise
- Venezuela: deteriorating operating conditions and US sanctions take toll of supply
Non-OPEC: near term growth transitions to stability longer term
- US Lower 48 in focus: core inventory continues to be limiting factor
Long-term cost curve comes down
The Majors in the Permian
Latin America in focus: key non-OPEC growth area outside of North America
- Brazil – a tale of two basins
- Guyana is the new kid on the block
- Longer term exploration is crucial to maintain growth in the region
Global demand: heading toward a plateau by the late 2030s
- Fuel demand from passenger cars: reaching a peak after 2030
- The fight against air pollution: another force shaping transport fuel demand
- Demand for petrochemical feedstocks

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

Year-on-year change in supply
Global liquids demand
US Lower 48 crude and condensate production outlook

What's included

This report contains:

Macro_oils_long_term_outlook_H1_2019_Data_download.xls

XLS 1.71 MB
Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2019 slidepack.pdf

PDF 3.84 MB
Macro Oils long-term outlook H1 2019: Assessing risks and trends to 2040

ZIP 5.63 MB
International_Crude_Prices_H1_2019.xls

XLS 3.98 MB