Our H2 2017 long-term oil outlook is broadly unchanged from our Spring outlook. We see relatively low prices through 2019 as robust production growth – largely from the US – limits upside price pressure, barring any geopolitically driven supply disruption. We expect price recovery by 2023, supported by higher US tight oil breakevens and the need for higher cost conventional production to fill a growing supply gap. At mid-decade, prices come under pressure partly because we see a marked deceleration in demand growth– to just 0.5 million b/d per year. Into the late 2020s, prices enter a sustained recovery. Non-OPEC production will have peaked, and higher cost production is needed to meet demand. Key questions addressed in this report: What is the outlook for US tight oil? What are the risks? How does the role of OPEC shift? What is driving the slowdown in demand growth?