Commodity Market Report

Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil, OPEC, and decelerating demand growth

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Summary

Our H2 2017 long-term oil outlook is broadly unchanged from our Spring outlook. We see relatively low prices through 2019 as robust production growth – largely from the US – limits upside price pressure, barring any geopolitically driven supply disruption. We expect price recovery by 2023, supported by higher US tight oil breakevens and the need for higher cost conventional production to fill a growing supply gap. At mid-decade, prices come under pressure partly because we see a marked deceleration in demand growth– to just 0.5 million b/d per year. Into the late 2020s, prices enter a sustained recovery. Non-OPEC production will have peaked, and higher cost production is needed to meet demand. Key questions addressed in this report: What is the outlook for US tight oil? What are the risks? How does the role of OPEC shift?  What is driving the slowdown in demand growth?

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017 Executive Summary.pdf

    PDF 272.59 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017 slidepack.pdf

    PDF 3.65 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook price H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook supply H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 991.10 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook demand H2 2017.pdf

    PDF 1.31 MB

  • Document

    Macro oils long term outlook H2 2017.xls

    XLS 490.50 KB

  • Document

    Macro oils long-term outlook H2 2017: the role of tight oil, OPEC, and decelerating demand growth

    ZIP 7.13 MB

Why buy this report?

In a volatile price environment, visibility is key to inform strong investment decisions. This report equips you with data on the oil price so that you can:

• Understand the outlook for the price of Brent crude up unto 2035: the risks and the upside
• Assess the affects of geopolitical risk factors on oil supply and production growth
• Identify geographies with a more robust production outlook

This study offers detailed insight into the fundamentals that will affect the price of Brent crude up to 2035. It includes:

• A comprehensive overview of the supply and demand side drivers that will affect the oil price
• Commentary on geopolitical risks and what we can expect from OPEC
• An assessment of the risks and growth potential for US tight oil

 

Lead analysts from our global oils team discuss how EVs could affect peak demand worldwide.

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