Commodity Market Report

Macro Oils long-term outlook H2 2019

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22 November 2019

Macro Oils long-term outlook H2 2019

Report summary

The autumn update to our long term outlook shows moderately lower demand than we expected in the spring although the trend remains the same: growth into the 2030s and then a plateau to 2040. To no one’s surprise, US production is revised downward as the investment community throttles back available dollars for tight oil projects. We expected a significant slowing in US supply growth early next decade, with 2018 the peak year of increases, but the curtailed investment environment for independent producers in the US has added extra braking of growth. What do these changes mean? Prices are revised moderately lower with the largest effect in the period before 2025. We still expect non-OPEC production to flatten and then decline after 2030. Fuel efficiency gains and inroads by electric vehicles mean liquids demand plateaus by the late 2030s.

Table of contents

  • Global supply outlook switches away from strong growth during the mid-2020s
  • Non-OPEC: pace of short-term supply growth slows in early 2020s; broad plateau from 2025 to 2035
  • US Lower 48: a story of deferred growth
  • Russia leads the revisions elsewhere in non-OPEC
  • OPEC long term capacity increases despite sanctions losses in Iran and Venezuela
  • Global demand: heading toward a plateau by the late 2030s
  • Fuel demand from passenger cars: reaching a peak after 2030
  • The fight against air pollution: another force shaping transport fuel demand
  • Demand for petrochemical feedstocks

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