Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook December 2019
Report summary
At the 5-6 December 2019 meeting, OPEC+ agreed to continue its current production restraint of 1.2 million b/d while adding another 0.5 million b/d of supply cuts through March 2020. For our base case view, we had factored in overcompliance from Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies already. In response to the OPEC+ meeting we made small downgrades to relevant production outlooks in early 2020. The net effect is minor, but they help offset the impact of an upward revision to non-OPEC supply and downward adjustments to demand in Q1 2020. The report covers: OPEC+ meeting and its effect Downgrade to Q4 2019 India demand Strength of non-OPEC supply outside the US in 2020 One off factors driving demand in 2019 and 2020 Please see our Oil price outlook for the latest Macro Oils content.
Table of contents
- Global supply: limited supply changes despite OPEC+ agreement for deeper cuts
- Non-OPEC: minor changes, Russian condensate exempt from OPEC+ cuts
- US Lower 48: onshore unchanged
- OPEC: new deeper cuts and growing unrest in North Africa and the Middle East
- Unrest poses threat to 2020 OPEC supply
- Global liquids demand growth averages 1.0 million b/d in 2019-2021, with risks skewed to the downside
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