Macro oils short-term outlook: December 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 08 December 2021

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Report summary

In an uncertain market, we are making startling few changes to our forecast. Our demand view took into account the persistence of Covid and intermittent lockdowns, minimising the impact of Omricon on our forecast for 2022. The OPEC+ meeting stuck to its planned increase which was our base case. However, geopolitical uncertainty is escalating and Covid remains a critical risk to the global economy, oil demand and the oil market. This Macro Oils short-term outlook highlights include: • Lower 48: DUC inventories draw closer to an end • OPEC+ rollover continues, despite lower prices • Travel restriction analysis in the wake of the Omicron variant • Details on the global release of strategic petroleum reserves

Global supply: OPEC+ rollover continues, despite lower prices
- Non-OPEC Supply: minor revisions to forecast
- US Lower 48: DUC inventories approach irreducible lows
- OPEC: minimal changes as OPEC+ group stick with existing plan to ease production restraint
Global demand: Emergence of Omicron variant raises risk to 2022 demand
- 2022: Omicron’s impact focused on Q1, but risks remain
- 2023: Asia-Pacific demand growth accelerates
Risks to the outlook