Commodity Market Report
Macro Oils short-term outlook: demand fears vs. supply risks and tightening markets
Report summary
A tweet on 1 August 2019 triggered financial market weakness that spilled into oil prices. President Trump wrote he intended to impose a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion of US imports from China effective 1 September. Products not previously targeted such as toys and phones would be affected. Widening fears of a global economic slowdown ensued, causing Brent to weaken. Yet, the physical oil market is showing signs of the tighter supply and demand balance we expect for H2 2019. Highlights of the Macro Oils Monthly Update include: Weakening demand growth and our new GDP forecast for 2019 and 2020, the outlook for Brazil oil production, US supply subject to downward risk, and OPEC production plunging in 2019.
Table of contents
- Global supply: tensions rise in the Persian Gulf, but little change to overall outlook
- Non-OPEC supply
- US Lower 48 supply
- OPEC
- Global demand: Global liquids demand growth: +0.9 million b/d in 2019; +1.4 million b/d in 2020
- Multiple factors playing to restrain growth in 2019
- Uncertainty toward 2020
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