Brent prices have been volatile over the past month, jarred by increased geopolitical risk, the OPEC meeting, and continued uncertainty over the ramp up in US production. By extending the production cut agreement, OPEC and non-OPEC have put a floor on prices – for now. But with every additional barrel of oil from the US, the efficacy of this strategy to support price diminishes. The US continues to outperform our expectations, with production revised up for 2017 and 2018. This has put further downward pressure on prices through 2017, and has tempered optimism about price into 2018 – even with continued restraint from OPEC. We now forecast an annual average Brent price of $54 per barrel in 2017 (down from $55), and $53 per barrel in 2018 (up from $50 in our May 3 monthly update).