Macro Oils short-term outlook: June 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 09 June 2021

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Report summary

Oil markets continue to improve, with Brent standing above $70/bbl, as investors are moving into commodities in this post-pandemic recovery phase. In contrast, Covid-restriction extensions dent Asia Pacific demand, as India revisions lead our downward view for 2021. Key topics include: - Raising our 2021 Brent price forecast - Our forecast for Lower 48 supply with higher crude prices - Strong demand recovery in US and China for 2021 - The challenge for Colombia production recovery amid civil unrest

Global supply: gradual easing of OPEC+ production restraint remains on course
- Non-OPEC: minor revisions driven by North America
- Colombia: widespread protests curtail crude oil production
- US Lower 48: forecast remains broadly unchanged as excess cash goes toward debt repayment
- OPEC: outlook unchanged as OPEC+ continue with planned easing of cuts
- Iran nuclear deal talks continue as Presidential elections loom
- Venezuela: downward revision of 60,000 b/d for May
- Development ramps up ahead of OPEC+ cuts easing
Global demand: Covid-19 restrictions dent Asia Pacific demand, recovery outlook brightens in rest of world
- 2021: H2 2021 to see strong demand recovery amid economic growth, end of Covid-19 restrictions in major economies
- China, North America and Europe: H2 2021 recovery outlook brightens
- Emerging economies: Restrictions, lagging vaccination pace slow the recovery
- 2022: Global demand expected to break the 100 million b/d level
- Risks to the outlook