Hovering close to US$55/bbl Brent remains stable. Price has been supported by strong adherence to the OPEC and non OPEC production cut agreement led by Saudi and the GCC and Russia on the non OPEC side. Global oil supply has fallen by 1.3 million b/d since end 2016. We continue to expect signatories to extend this production cut agreement to end 2017 supporting price through this year. However on the demand side the engines of growth appear to have slowed or stalled. We assess whether this is temporary or structural.