Macro oils short-term outlook March 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 03 March 2020

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Report summary

For this Monthly Update, our market view shows an enormous oversupply for Q1 2020, that continues but at a much-diminished rate through the rest of 2020. This is partly achieved through a recovery in demand, but also from our assumption that OPEC reduces output further in Q2 2020 to address the COVID-19 impact on demand and prices. Highlights include: • In an uncertain environment, we clarify our assumptions and the impact of COVID-19 on demand • Our production forecast for OPEC+ as the group meets 5-6 March • A revised and lower forecast for Libyan oil production • Forecast for China and global liquids demand in 2020 and 2021

Global supply: increased outages plus deeper cuts lower OPEC production
Non-OPEC supply: outlook remains largely unchanged, but lower price could impact US Lower 48 production
OPEC: Libyan oil port blockades and deeper OPEC cuts remove significant volumes
Global liquids demand: a drastic downward revision focuses on Q1 2020